"Sep 2023 Employment Cost Index rises 1.1%, beating forecast, stoking inflation fears, bolstering bullish U.S. dollar, suggesting more Fed hikes."

From FX Empire, October 31:

Highlights

    ECI rises 1.1%, beating forecasts
    Year-over-year compensation surges 4.3%
    Bullish impact on U.S. dollar likely

Employment Cost Index: A Key Indicator of Inflationary Trends
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for September 2023 surpassed expectations, signaling not just an uptick in labor costs but also casting a spotlight on broader economic implications. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a seasonally adjusted 1.1% increase in compensation costs for civilian workers for the three-month period ending in September. Within this, wages and salaries rose 1.2%, while benefit costs saw a 0.9% climb, marking a steady rise from June 2023.

Year-Over-Year Trends in Compensation Costs
The data shows an even more compelling narrative when looked at from a year-over-year perspective. Compensation costs for civilian workers have surged 4.3% for the 12 months ending September 2023. Moreover, wages and salaries specifically have gone up 4.6%, with benefit costs increasing 4.1%. When juxtaposed with last year’s increases, it’s evident that the rate of compensation growth has slightly tapered off, although it still remains significantly high....

....MUCH MORE

Here's the Bureau of Labor Statistics release: "Compensation costs up 1.1% Jun 2023 to Sep 2023 and up 4.3% over the year ending Sep 2023" 

Related August 26: "Powell’s Inflation Nightmare: Job Seekers, incl. the Employed, Suddenly Expect Massively Higher Wages in Job Offers"

I'm all for workers staying ahead of inflation (plus more) and I'm all for private sector unions—although like President Roosevelt* I think public sector unions should be outlawed—when you have a situation like the United Auto Workers demanding a reduction in the workweek from 40 to 32 hours and (Detroit News, August 3):

UAW demands 46% pay hike in talks with Detroit Three automakers

You are going to have some inflationary pressure.

And September 6: "TS Lombard: Resurging Inflation"

Taking energy as an example, the rule-of-thumb the old-time traders used was 10:1 i.e. a twenty percent increase in the price of oil flowed through the economy to result in a 2% rise in the general price level.

Because the economy is so much less energy-intensive than it was when those old boys were counting on their thumbs the ratio is probably 20:1, maybe even 25:1 but it still adds up. the recent 30% or so increase in the price of oil, unless it is quickly reversed, means a 1% - 1.5% increase in CPI.

And then you have wage increases. I'm all for private-sector unions asking for as much as they think they can get, It was Samuel Gompers, labor leader extraordinaire, who rhetorically asked what labor wanted and answered "More"* but the math is the math and if the United Auto Workers get the 46% wage increase they are asking for it will raise prices.

Throw in a dozen other examples and that's my rationale for bastardizing Santayana with his "Only the dead have seen the end of war" observation: Only the dead have seen the end of inflation....