There have been some borderline hysterical headlines over the course of the last year or so:
- El Niño Is Coming—and the World Isn’t Prepared
- Forecasted El Niño Could Cost $3-Trillion in Losses Globally
- El Niño’s storm clouds gather over global food prices
- The Looming El Niño Could Cost the World Trillions of Dollars
- How ETFs are bracing for the turbulence of El Niño
We didn't link when the stories came out and aren't going to do so now. Look 'em up if you wish.
And from IRI/Columbia the current forecasts and status of the event so far:
ENSO Forecast
October 2023 Quick Look
Published: October 19, 2023
October 2023 Quick Look
Published: October 19, 2023
A monthly summary of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, based on the NINO3.4 index (120-170W, 5S-5N)
As of mid-Oct 2023, El Niño conditions in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have plateaued at the level of a moderate El Niño event (NINO3.4 = 1.5). Key oceanic and atmospheric variables are consistent with a moderate El Niño event. A CPC El Niño advisory remains in place for October 2023. Almost all of the models in the IRI ENSO prediction plume forecast a continuation of the El Niño event during rest of boreal autumn, winter and early spring of 2024, with a subsequent weakening thereafter, and ENSO-neutral becoming the most likely category in May-Jul, and Jun-Aug 2024....
....MUCH MORE
Here are the plumes of the various model runs. In particular, the "hottest" of the averaged models, the dynamic, top bold line, doesn't go above two degrees anomaly:
And the average of the statistical models doesn't get above 1.5 degrees anomaly.
Here is the mouseover interactive of all the models.
For comparison, here are the last 40 years of ENSO, El Niño above the zero line in red, La Niña below the zero line in blue:
We're all gonna die but it won't be because of El Niño.
