Monday, October 23, 2023

Capital Markets: Yen Through 150

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

JPY150 Pierced but Market is Not Done 

Overview:  News that Israel's ground assault on Gaza is being delayed while hostage negotiations continue saw gold and oil ease, but tensions continue to run high. Gold peaked near $1997 before the weekend and pulled back to about $1964 today before steadying. December WTI peaked in front of $90 a barrel at the end of last week, and fell to about $86.85 today, but has also steadied. The dollar is firmer against the G10 currencies, with the Scandis and Antipodeans the weakest (off ~0.25%-0.65%). Emerging market currencies are also mostly softer. The Mexican peso is the heaviest, off about 0.7%.

Global equities are weaker. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 2.7% last week, the most in two months, and is off to a poor start this week. China's CSI 300, Taiwan's Taiex, and India's main benchmarks are off more than 1% today. Europe's Stoxx 600 fell 3.4% last week, the most since March. It is extending its losses today and is posting the fifth consecutive decline. The S&P 50 fell 2.4% last week and the NASDAQ was off almost 3.2%. Both are poised to gap lower. These gaps have extra technical significance if they remain open given that they will appear on the weekly bar charts not just the dailies. Bonds are also selling off. The 10-year JGB yield reached a new high above 0.86% amid talk that the BOJ may consider adjusting the Yield Curve Control and raising its inflation forecasts at next week's meeting. European benchmark yields are mostly 6-8 bp higher, though we note the peripheral yields, including Italy, are up a little less. The 10-year US Treasury yield is up nearly 10 bp to breech the 5.00% threshold.... 

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