Wednesday, October 18, 2023

Capital Markets: "Geopolitical Tensions Lift Oil and Gold, but little Sign of Haven Buying in FX"

From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:

Overview: US economic data surprised to the upside yesterday, and although interest rates rose as one would expect, the dollar's initial gains were pared, and the Dollar Index finished slightly lower on the day. This seemed, in some respects, to echo how the greenback reacted to the recent jobs report. However, then, interest rates softened, but the inability to rally on seemingly good news is notable. The heightened tensions in the Middle East have spurred a dramatic rally in oil prices. December WTI is nearly 3.5% higher near $88.50 after gapping higher. Gold has also jumped after two relatively subdued sessions and is near $1945, up more than 1%.

The safe haven buying in foreign exchange market is limited. The dollar is heavier against most of the G10 currencies but the euro and Swedish krona. The yen is little changed after the BOJ bought bonds in an unscheduled operation, and the Swiss franc is up by less than 0.2%. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer against the US dollar. The biggest decline is in the Polish zloty, which seems to be subject to profit-taking after its recent run-up. Equity markets are mostly lower. In the Asia Pacific region, Japan, South Korea, and Australia saw minor gains. Europe's Stoxx 600 is slightly lower and US index futures show a heavier bias. Fixed income is also not showing safe haven demand. Yields in Europe are mostly 1-2 bp higher. UK Gilts and Italy's BTPs are under more pressure and yields are up nearly six basis points. The 10-year Treasury yield is flattish near 4.84%.

Asia Pacific
China reported stronger than expected Q3 GDP....

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