Wednesday, March 1, 2017

Agricultural Commodities: "AM markets: soy rises, as traders read between Trump's lines"

Last Chg
Corn 376-0+2-2
Soybeans 1044-2+8-4
Wheat 451-0+7-2

From Agrimoney:

February 28, 1983 brought one of the biggest television audiences in history, witnessing the final episode of M*A*S*H which was watched by well over 100m people.
Wind forward 34 years, and the speech by Donald Trump, the US president, to Congress last night may not have attracted quite the same figures overall, but was a must-view for grain traders, corn and soybean farmers, crushers, ethanol producers etc.
The allure of the speech was that it might contain a clue as to Mr Trump's biofuel policy, after a day of wild trading on corn and soybean markets.
Futures were sent soaring by rumours that the new president had signed an executive order which would result in raised biofuel demand, only to pare gains on White House denials.
"Do we know anything for certain? No! Did the market trade headlines and rumours today? Heck yes!" said Joe Lardy at CHS Hedging, as the sector awaited Mr Trump to take the podium.
Not so simple?
Unfortunately for ag, the speech offered no clarification on any reforms to US biofuels policy.
There was no mention of energy, corn, biofuels or blending, let alone of whether the US actually is to raise to 15%, from 10%, the mandated proportion of ethanol which must be mixed into gasoline – as one version of market rumour had it on Tuesday.
In fact, a boost to the ethanol blend might not be quite so easy.
"It is my understanding that any change to the Renewable Fuel Standard would require approval from the EPA which normally involves a public comment period or potentially and act of Congress," CHS Hedging's Joe Lardy said.
To judge by the deadline misses on previous EPA deals on ethanol, with biofuels a complex and emotive topic, swift resolution would indeed appear difficult....MORE