Thursday, March 23, 2017

Foreign Exchange: Marc Chandler Has "Some Thoughts about the Recent Price Action" (DXY)

The charts are not helpful at this juncture, here's the last two weeks of the hourly:

While it appears the dollar may have seen a short term low at ~99.35 yesterday, pulling back to the daily view over the last year shows there's no "reason" for the decline to stop right here:

That early February low is not especially strong support, the November and March 2016 resistance just above 98.00 make more sense.
Both charts via FinViz, 99.60 up 0.13 last.

From Marc to Market:
(greetings from Tokyo.  Speaking at the CFA Society of Japan tonight)

The gains the US dollar scored last month have been largely unwound against the major currencies.  The dollar's losses against the yen are a bit greater, and it returned to levels not seen late last November. 

The down draft in the dollar appears part of a larger development in the capital markets that has also seen the US 10-year yield slide 25 bp in less than two weeks.   The two-year yield is off 17 bp.  The yield of 1.25% is 25 bp on top of the upper end of the Fed funds target range.  

A few forces are at work.  First, is the reaction to the less aggressive stance at recent FOMC meeting.  Second, the Dutch election outcome and poll still pointing to a defeat of Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential election has seen some unwind of safe haven demand.  Third, oil prices have fallen.  Consider that as recently as March 7, light sweet crude was near $54 a barrel. On March 22, it reached almost $47, the lowest level since the end of November.  Fourth, President's Trump draft budget for the remainder of the fiscal year and the drawn out process over his temporary travel ban and the replacement of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) warn that tax reform and infrastructure efforts will also be delayed.  

There is much focus on the scheduled Thursday vote in the House of Representatives on the replacement for the Affordable Care Act.  We suspect that if it does not appear to have the votes, the vote will be delayed.  In some ways, there is much riding on it.  A defeat would be seen as jeopardizing President Trump's agenda.   It would be a defeat for Speaker Ryan by the same forces that brought down his predecessor (the Freedom Caucus).  

In other ways, there is less riding on the particulars of the bill at this juncture.   The Senate has opposed views, and it will likely pass its own version.  Then the two differences are hammered out in the reconciliation process.   It is there that the bill ultimately is shaped into law.   Trump and Ryan can compromise on much to get any bill passed, which can be heralded as a success.  We suspect this will be the case before the weekend, and this could help support the dollar and stocks, while interest rates may also rise in response. ...MORE