From the Energy Information Administration:
...Nymex prices are down. The Nymex near-month futures
price (November 2015) fell by 37¢ over the report period, from
$2.404/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.033 yesterday. The price fell by 22¢
(10%) on Monday alone. The current price level is noteworthy because it
is the lowest that any near-month futures price has been since late
April 2012, which is remembered as the summer of remarkably low natural
gas prices.
In addition to relatively high storage levels and year-over-year
production growth entering this winter, the anticipation that El Nino
will moderate the upcoming winter temperatures may be contributing to
the lower prices. The winter strip, which averages the November
through March Nymex contracts, settled yesterday at $2.349/MMBtu. This
is very low compared to previous years. Last year's winter strip price
on October 28, for example, was $3.750.
The November futures contract settled on Wednesday, and December is
now the prompt-month contract. On Wednesday, the December contract
closed at $2.298/MMBtu, significantly higher than the November contract
at expiration.
Supply decreases slightly. Total supply fell again
this week, decreasing by 0.5% according to data from Bentek Energy.
Although dry production was down by 0.2%, or about 0.2 Bcf/d, this
week's supply decrease was driven by a decline in Midwest imports from
Canada, which reduced supply by 0.4 Bcf/d. This was only partially
offset by increased imports into the Northeast and West. LNG sendout
this week was very close to flat.
Consumption decreases slightly. Week-over-week total
consumption fell by 0.4%. Residential/commercial consumption drove the
decrease, falling 2.2%, or 0.4 Bcf/d. The power sector had increased
consumption, rising by 1.1%, or 0.3 Bcf/d, led by increased power burn
in Texas and the Southeast. Exports to Mexico were down, and industrial
consumption was essentially flat....MUCH MORE
...Temperatures during the storage report week are close to normal. Temperatures
in the Lower 48 states averaged 57° for the storage report week, 1°
warmer than the 30-year normal temperature and 1° cooler than the
average temperature during the same week last year. There were 68
population-weighted heating degree days (HDD) during this report week, 9
HDD more than the five-year average and 8 HDD more than during the same
period last year. There were also 10 population-weighted cooling degree
days (CDD) this report week, 2 CDD more than the five-year average and 3
CDD more than this week last year.
