Monday, November 30, 2015

How Demographics Rule the Global Economy

From the Wall Street Journal:

The developed world’s workforce will start to decline next year, threatening future global growth
Ever since the global financial crisis, economists have groped for reasons to explain why growth in the U.S. and abroad has repeatedly disappointed, citing everything from fiscal austerity to the euro meltdown. They are now coming to realize that one of the stiffest headwinds is also one of the hardest to overcome: demographics. 
Next year, the world’s advanced economies will reach a critical milestone. For the first time since 1950, their combined working-age population will decline, according to United Nations projections, and by 2050 it will shrink 5%. The ranks of workers will also fall in key emerging markets, such as China and Russia. At the same time the share of these countries’ population over 65 will skyrocket. 
Previous generations fretted about the world having too many people. Today’s problem is too few. 
This reflects two long-established trends: lengthening lifespans and declining fertility. Yet many of the economic consequences are only now apparent. Simply put, companies are running out of workers, customers or both. In either case, economic growth suffers. As a population ages, what people buy also changes, shifting more demand toward services such as health care and away from durable goods such as cars....MUCH MORE
HT: Abnormal Returns


"China’s Demographics at a Turning Point"
The one rule of demographics is: demographics rule....

Demographics Rule: The Coming Battles Between The Juvies and The Geezers
Not exactly Crips and Bloods.
Or even Sharks and Jets, but important nonetheless.

I've forgotten who first explained the central truth of demographics to me but in a nutshell: you can't have more native-born 25-year-olds in 24 years than you have 1-year-olds today.

This is something Frau Merkel had already incorporated into her political weltanschauung when the news Germany reached a lower birthrate than Japan hit the press earlier this year.

No wonder they call it "Old Europe".

(Repost) Barron's Interview--Rob Arnott: Demographics Are the Markets' 800-Pound Gorilla
"Are robots and aging demographics self-cancelling problems?"

And many more.