Tuesday, November 3, 2015

UPDATED--Earnings: "Tesla Motors: Stifel Sees Shares Falling After-Hours" (TSLA)

Update below.
Original post:

$212.00 last, down $1.79.
I am loathe to make public predictions on earnings release day, a lesson learned from First Solar's glory days when you could get a 10% move and go through a half-dozen strike prices before the open the next day.

From Barron's Stocks to Watch:
Tesla Motors (TSLA) announces third-quarter earnings after today’s closing bell. And the analyst team at Sifel expects the stock to fall during after-hours trading.

Why? Analysts James Albertine and Maria Klioutcheva don’t expect the car make to meet previous guidance for deliveries of its Model X, the company’s new SUV. Rather, they see Tesla ”choosing a slower, more deliberate path for early Model X production and deliveries in in FY2015.”
Prior guidance has the company delivering 50,000 to 55,000 cars this year. Yet Albertine and Klioutcheva warn that implies Tesla will deliver 19,000 units during the current fourth quarter, requiring “a major step up” given that the company delivered 11,580 units during the third quarter. As the pair write:
We are modeling 15,500 Model S units delivered and 3,500 Model X units delivered, but we believe TSLA would opt to miss guidance vs. deliver sub-standard vehicles, which may push a larger portion of Model X units into 2016, in our view. Unfortunately, given this view, we think there is a high likelihood shares will come under pressure in after-hours trading this afternoon.
Stifel, however, isn’t backing off its Buy rating or $400 price target....MORE
Here's the last ten month's action. Note the gap from April never got filled--and yes, they don't always fill, I knew a guy who didn't believe the Big Bull of 1982-2000 was real because a gap from 1974 hadn't filled yet.
TSLA Tesla Motors, Inc. daily Stock Chart

Update: Tesla Pops $15 On Earnings Miss (TSLA)