Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Bank America Merrill Lynch On Robotics and Artificial Intelligence

From FT Alphaville:

Signposts on the road to somewhere…

Sometimes you just have to print out the 300 odd page report* on robotic revolution that lands in your inbox.... 
Still though, we’re in good company… 
At 9:30 Tuesday morning, the online retail giant will open its first-ever brick-and-mortar retail store in its 20-year life, in University Village.
The store, called Amazon Books, looks a lot like bookstores that populate malls across the country. Its wood shelves are stocked with 5,000 to 6,000 titles, best-sellers as well as Amazon.com customer favorites.
- Seattle Times 
Brings us back to an old argument really, that the impact of new tech will be felt in ways that are hard to predict. The supposed decline of the physical book being a (limited) case in point. It could be that the Amazon bricks and mortar move is telling us that something is fundamentally wrong with the digital economy. Or it could just be telling us that physical books were understimated. We dunno. 
With that in minds, have some selected extracts and estimates (to be revisited in our ever more robotic futures) from that BofAML tome. Bring your own scepticism, ours is busy. 
We estimate the current robots & AI solutions market at US$153bn by 2020E including US$83bn for robots, and US$70bn for AI-based analytics. Disruptive technologies will yield US$14-33tn in annual economic impact by 2025E through cost reductions and efficiency gains.

There is a 50% chance of full AI (high-level machine learning) by 2040-50E and a 90% chance by 2075E according to AI researchers. Experts expect that systems will move on to super-intelligence in less than 30 years thereafter (source: Mueller and Bostrom 2014). The greatest impacts are likely to be felt as a result of knowledge work automation which has the potential to affect over 230mn knowledge workers globally and cUS$9tn in employment costs.

AV technology is likely to create a US$87bn solutions market for car manufacturers, parts suppliers, and technology companies by 2030E, of which software will take the largest share at 29% of the total (source: Lux Research). Up to 90% of new cars will be “connected” in developed markets by 2020E, reaching 20% total fleet penetration (source: McKinsey, Hitachi, Telefonica, Gartner). Cars with partial autonomous features will reach 12-13% penetration by 2025E, when the first fully autonomous cars will be commercial. By 2035E, penetration will reach 25%, with fully driverless cars comprising 9-10% of total sales (source: BCG). L4/L5 features are likely to cost an extra US$10,000 when first introduced in 2025 (source: BCG), declining to US$7,000 by 2030 (source: KPMG, IHS)....