"A "No" Victory Appears Probable: What Happens Next According To Deutsche Bank"

Although the FT's Greek coverage has been first rate, probably the best available in English, today ZeroHedge seems more nimble.

From ZH:

With early forecasts all telegraphing a modest victory for the "Oxis", barring some last minute miracle, the Varoufakis gambit - with some last minute assistance by the IMF - may succeed. What happens next? Here is Deutsche Bank's "map for the post referendum" which presents the four possible outcomes
In this document DB, which is one of the banks that may stand to lose the most from any major stresses to Europe's precarious status quo as a result of its tens of trillions of notional derivatives, lays out the possible post-referendum scenarios.
Here is how the German megabank sees the possible outcomes of what is shaping up to be a "No" vote:

• N1 – Soft deal: The most unlikely scenario is that the euro-area partners offer a much softer programme to Greece.
• N2 – Default-and-stay: Moderately less unlikely is a scenario where Greece defaults but stays in the euro thanks to a direct recapitalisation of Greek banks by the euro-area partners, with the Greek government using only domestic resources for the country’s fiscal needs.
• N3 – New deal: The third scenario is one in which the rising economic and political cost of a closed banking system results in the Syriza government being replaced by a new government of national unity and a new deal with creditors being reached.
• N4 – Grexit: In our view, Grexit and Scenario N3 are the most likely – with about equal probabilities. That said, we see the probability of Grexit increasing the larger is the margin of victory of the NO vote. Even with a NO vote, the cumulative probability of the first three scenarios still exceeds that of Grexit.

And the details:
NO, Scenario #N1. Soft deal
This, in our view, is by far the least likely outcome, as it would generate significant moral hazard issues, which in the longer term could be as damaging as an exit. If Europe were to offer significant concessions to Greece following a no vote, it would de facto incentivize other borrowing countries to call domestic referenda to improve the terms of their rescue packages. This would be unsustainable in the long-run as (a) it would create obvious political issues in creditor countries, (b) it would not deal with the structural adjustments and political integration which are necessary for the longer term viability of the euro area....MORE

Also at ZeroHedge:
Risk Off: FX Carry Trades Tumble, Euro Opens Under 1.10; USDJPY Under 121

Earlier:
Greek Referendum: Barclays On What Comes Next
"Grexit: What might it mean for the US? 3 things to consider"
Greek Vote: "No" Vote On Bailout Terms Seen Ahead By Most