Monday, October 27, 2014

Oil Shows Some Resiliance (today)

At the moment oil is probably the most important story in the global economy.
The stimulative effects of lower oil prices are immense, maybe two trillion dollars, and more important than anything the central bankers are up to, for now anyway.
(QE ends Wednesday)

After trading down to a better-than-two-year-low $79.44 the front future WTI is now only down 26 cents from today's settle, at $80.74. We're going lower but you may see a bit of a short squeeze this week.

From CNBC:
After dipping below $80 per barrel, crude oil settles a penny lower, at $81
U.S. oil prices settled modestly lower on Monday after touching a 28-month low earlier after Goldman Sachs slashed its price forecasts amid further signs of lackluster demand and booming supply.

Weaker-than-expected U.S. pending home sales data at mid-morning sent the dollar index lower, pepping up dollar-denominated commodity markets across the board.

Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for Brent to $85 a barrel from $100 for the first quarter of 2015 and reduced its projection for U.S. crude to $75 from $90, making it the most bearish bank on Wall Street.

U.S. crude for December settled 1 cent lower at $81.00 per barrel, having earlier touched a low of $79.44, its lowest level since June 2012.

Brent for December fell to a low of $84.55 but also partially recovered.

"As we sold off (in early trade), pending home sales came out which misses expectations so the U.S. dollar came off and some buyers stepped in," said Bill Baruch, senior market strategist at futures for LLC in Chicago.

Baruch said the overall sentiment for crude was still bearish however, and forecast $75-$77 in U.S. crude...MORE
Oil: Goldman Lowers Forecast, Brent and WTI Both Down