From Advisor Perspectives:
iMarketSignals' BCIw indicates a 27 weeks possible lead to a recession, up from last week's 26, with a statistically remote probability of a recession occurring then. The BCIw is derived from our Business Cycle Index (BCI), which stands at 161.7 marginally up from last week's revised 161.5. The BCIp, a measure of BCI relative to its last peak, is at 48.3. The BCI annualized growth indicator BCIg lost further ground to stand at 12.8, down from last week's revised 14.1. On past performance, it is too early to call a recession.
Figure 1 tracks BCIw, the weeks to recession indicator, in relation to the past tracks prior to the previous recessions; on past performance a recession followed once BCIw moved below 19 weeks. Figure 2 plots BCIp, BCI, BCIg and the S&P500 together with the thresholds (red lines) that need to be crossed to be able to call a recession
The BCI, BCIp and BCIw are described in article 1, article 2 and article 3 respectively. Historic values of BCI, BCIg and BCIp can be downloaded from the author's website.
Apart from the weekly Business Cycle Index, updates of a number of weekly and monthly financial macro models are also available on the website.
