Monday, August 12, 2013

Crapski: "Bulls roar back on USDA crop cuts"

Corn up 6 1/4 cents at $4.5950; Soybeans $12.1450 up 32 1/4 cents; wheat $64575 down a penny-and-a-half.
From Ag.com:
The U.S. will raise a 13.8-billion-bushel corn crop based on an average projected yield of 154.4 bu/acre, 2 numbers that are well below previous trade estimates.
That's the take from Monday's USDA-NASS World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The agency's monthly Crop Production report -- also released Monday -- shows the overall crop output for corn is 28% higher than a year ago.

"Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 154.4 bushels per acre, up 31.0 bushels from 2012," according to Monday's Crop Production report. "If realized, this will be the highest average yield since 2009. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 89.1 million acres, unchanged from the June forecast but up 2 percent from 2012."

The numbers lit the fuse for soybean and corn futures, with the nearby soybean contract skyrocketing 42 1/2 cents higher to $12.24 3/4 shortly after USDA released its numbers. Nearby corn was 12 1/2 higher at $4.85 3/4 soon after the data.

"From a trade expectations perspective, this is a surprisingly bullish report," says Teucrium Trading market analyst and broker Sal Gilbertie. "The trade was clearly not expecting these diminished yield numbers."...MORE
Earlier:
Corn: Deutsche Bank Takes a Farm Tour and Cuts Price Estimates
 December futures: corn  453.75; wheat 645.50; soybeans 1,194.25