Monday, August 12, 2013

Corn: Deutsche Bank Takes a Farm Tour and Cuts Price Estimates

Deutsche has been among the most consistently bearish of the analysts and the one we've posted most frequently.
From Agrimoney:
Deutsche Bank cut its forecast for corn prices to level not seen for nearly three years, after saying that the MDA crop tour of the Midwest had prompted it to add nearly 5 bushels per acre to its yield forecast.
The bank downgraded its forecast for Chicago corn prices, as measured by the average in the last quarter of 2013, by $0.40 a bushel to $4.20 a bushel, a level not seen since August 2010.
The revision represents the latest in a series of cuts to hopes for corn futures, with Goldman Sachs also reducing its forecast last week, and RJ O'Brien, the Chicago-based broker, saying that prices may fall as low as $3.50 a bushel this year.
Deutsche said its revision followed an inspection of Midwest crops as part of the MDA tour, which had prompted it to raise to 160.8 bushels per acre, from 156 bushels per acre, its forecast for the average US corn yield this year.
'Yield potential extremely strong'
"What surprised us the most was the large plant populations," Deutsche analyst Christina McGlone-Hahn said....MORE
Going back to May 28:
Corn: Deutsche sees potential for price below $4
And on June 26:
"Deutsche slashes hopes for corn, soybean prices"

See also July 8:
Macquarie Calling For Corn in the Low $4's 
July 31:
Lines on Charts: "Corn Seen Sliding Below $4.50 on Bear Flag"

December futures: corn  453.75; wheat 645.50; soybeans 1,194.25