Everything is guesswork right now but sub-$4.00 is a really low number.
Corn $6.5750, wheat $6.9625
From Agrimoney:
Deutsche Bank lowered the bar on expectations for corn prices, foreseeing the potential for a drop below $4 a bushel, thanks to the prospect of a record US harvest, forecasting a drop in soybean prices too.
The bank cut its forecast for US corn sowings by 96.3m acres, and restated a yield estimate of 153.7 bushels per acre - both numbers below those proposed by the US Department of Agriculture.
That left Deutsche's forecast for the corn harvest at 13.6bn bushels, more than 500m bushels below the USDA estimate.
However, taking a less robust view of US corn consumption, particularly for feed use, the bank warned that market dynamics suggested a price below the range of $4.30-5.10 a bushel that farm officials have forecast, at a farmgate level, in 2013-14.
'South of $4 a bushel'
The bank said that its analysis suggested a stocks-to-use ratio - a key indication of market tightness, and therefore of the prices that buyers need to pay to secure supplies – of 15%, "well above the historical 12% average"."This stocks level relative to demand points to new crop corn prices south of $4 a bushel," a level not seen in Chicago futures for nearly three years....MORE
