Friday, January 11, 2013

The Flat Unemployment Claims Trend and Gasoline Prices

From Political Calculations:
We think we finally have enough non-outlier event data to map out the current trend for new jobless claims in the U.S. through the week ending 5 January 2013
Closeup of Residual Distribution of U.S. Seasonally-Adjusted Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims, 19 November 2011 through 5 January 2013
The last time the U.S. had a flat trend for new jobless claims was right before the onset of the so-called "Great Recession" at the end of 2007. The only problem is that it's gone flat at a level some 48,000 layoffs per week higher than was typical during the low-unemployment years of the Bush administration.

As for what brought on the new trend, we believe it was falling gasoline prices in the U.S. beginning in early September 2012, where prices plummetted after spiking at the end of summer in most states other than California....MORE