From Political Calculations:
We think we finally have enough non-outlier event data to map out the
current trend for new jobless claims in the U.S. through the week ending 5 January 2013:
The
last time the U.S. had a flat trend for new jobless claims was right
before the onset of the so-called "Great Recession" at the end of 2007.
The only problem is that it's gone flat at a level some 48,000 layoffs
per week higher than was typical during the low-unemployment years of
the Bush administration.
As for what brought on the new trend, we
believe it was falling gasoline prices in the U.S. beginning in early
September 2012, where prices plummetted after spiking at the end of
summer in most states other than California....MORE
