The futures are up 3.8 cents at $2.393. We are looking for sub-$2.00 by late May-early June as storage tops off and production is diverted to the spot market. The expectation is that the futures will converge down to meet the cash market.
From Reuters 3:45pm Mar. 5:
US natgas futures end down 5 pct, break chart support
Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Futures remain above January's 10-year low * Mostly mild U.S. weather ahead for next two weeks * Coming up: EIA short-term energy outlook Tuesday (Releads, changes byline, updates closing prices, adds technicals) By Joe Silha NEW YORK, March 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures ended down sharply on Monday, with mild late-winter weather and record-high supplies driving the front-month contract below technical support. "It looked like a bottom had been forming -- we've been moving sideways for weeks -- but now it looks like we're seeing a breakdown," said Richard Ross at Auerbach Grayson in New York. While planned output cuts by several key producers and unexpected nuclear plant outages have lent some support to prices in the last few weeks, traders said the huge overhang in storage plus tapering winter demand were likely to keep gas prices on the defensive without more weather demand. The front-month gas futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which gapped lower on the open, finished down 12.9 cents at $2.355 per million British thermal units after sliding late to a one-month and contract low of $2.35. Chart traders noted the nearby contract broke below a symmetrical triangle pattern on Monday and closed on a weak note, a possible sign that more downside was in store. They pegged the next technical support at the 10-year low of $2.231 hit in late January and then in the $2 area....