Friday, August 12, 2011

Deep Value Rady Investment Management: "I’m Short Gold, The VIX and Treasuries"

We haven't been posting on gold, unwound a long treasuries/short junk pair trade after the pop/drop in the respective legs and started babbling about the VIX at 15.95 on its way to 48 on Monday, posting "Looking for Mean Reversion: "VIX Sets Some New Records, Suggesting Volatility Near Peak" (VXX; TVIX; XIV; IVO; XXV)"

Here's Rady via Yahoo Finance:
Question: what index is up 65% so far this month at a time when stocks have shed 15%-20%?
Answer: The VIX, also known as the CBOE Volatility Index.

I don't know about you, but anytime I see a parabolic move like that, I can't help thinking, ''There's no way this can last." But to actually man-up (sorry ladies, just a figure of speech) and short it here, well, that takes actual guts. Or "conviction," as Harry Rady of Rady Asset Management says.

"It is by far our largest position," the self-described "deep value, tactical contrarian" says in talking about being short the VIX. "Given how wild the swings are and how significant they are, it creates real opportunity and creates real inefficiencies," he says.

While Rady concedes that the VIX could still push higher from here, over the coming months he believes that volatility will compress, as it has "95% of the time."

If you like that call, try this one on for size: "I am short gold." I'll let him explain.

"That's more of a short-term play. Like the tech bubble of 2000, if you go to cocktail parties, all you hear people talking about is gold," Rady says. "We think that there's a bubble building and that in the short-term there's going to be a little pop...that it's overcooked."

And he's not done there. If you're among the masses who have sought refuge in Treasuries lately, let's just say that you might want to get near some water....MORE