Monday, May 2, 2011

Trading Osama: Bin Laden and Inefficient Markets

From Economix:
Someone else could have made a killing yesterday. Here’s a look at the odds on Intrade, the prediction markets site, on whether Osama bin Laden would be “captured/neutralised before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011″:

If you were among the tiny minority of Intrade bettors who believed Bin Laden would be caught by or around the 10-year anniversary of 9/11 (or perhaps by this June or this December), you did very well....MORE