I'm not predicting a never ending La Niña
|EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)|
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
|10 February 2011 |
...Nearly all of the ENSO model forecasts weaken La Niña in the coming months (Fig. 6). A majority of the models predict a return to ENSO-neutral conditions by May-June-July 2011, although some models persist a weaker La Niña into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011. Recent trends in the observations and models do not offer many hints on which outcome is more likely. Also, model skill is historically at a minimum during the Northern Hemisphere spring (the “spring barrier”). Therefore La Niña is expected to weaken during the next several months, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions equally likely during May-June 2011.
Expected La Niña impacts during February-April 2011 include suppressed convection over the west-central tropical Pacific Ocean, and enhanced convection over Indonesia. Potential impacts in the United States include an enhanced chance of above-average precipitation in the Northern Rockies and western regions of the Northern Plains (along with a concomitant increase in snowfall), Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. Below-average precipitation is favored across much of the southern states. An increased chance of below-average temperatures is predicted for much of the West Coast and northern tier of states (excluding New England), and a higher possibility of above-average temperatures is forecast for much of the southern and central U.S. (see 3-month seasonal outlook released on January 20th, 2011).