Friday, February 18, 2011

"Refining Profits Aren't Just a Pipe Dream" (FTO; VLO;TSO)

From the Wall Street Journal's Heard on the Street column:

Every so often, the gods smile on oil refiners. The breakdown in the relationship between West Texas Intermediate and Brent crudes represents an extra-toothy grin.

There has been a structural change in the North American oil market. In the past, oil flowed north from the Gulf Coast toward refiners in the Midwest and the Northeast.
The development of new fields such as Canada's oil sands has turned the flow's direction southward. Now oil heads into the crossroads at Cushing, Okla.—where the Nymex WTI contract price settles—but then struggles to get farther south because pipelines remain geared toward the old days. As energy economist Phil Verleger puts it, "Cushing has become the 'Roach Motel' for crude," which can get in, but can't get out.
With tanks nearly full at Cushing, WTI has slumped relative to other grades of crude. Historically, it traded at a small premium to Brent. Today, a barrel of WTI is about $17, or 17%, cheaper.

Brent prices have remained strong in part because the U.S. Northeast is dependent on fuel imports. U.S. legislation requires that shipping between domestic ports be done on U.S.-built, -flagged and -owned ships with a U.S. crew. That makes it expensive to ship fuel by boat between the Gulf and, say, New York. East Coast demand is, therefore, met in part by imports from Europe, where Brent is the main benchmark.
The upshot is blowout margins for any Midwestern refiner with access to WTI or able to process heavier Canadian crudes that are backing up in the pipeline and therefore also discounted. Little wonder Midwest refining utilization is running at 93.4% against the national average of 84.7%....MORE
From Gainers Today:

Latest Valero Energy Corporation recommendations:
Oppenheimer upgraded Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) to Outperform with price target $32
Barclays Capital reiterated Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) to Equal Weight with price target $25
Howard Weil upgraded Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) to Market Outperform with price target $22
Caris & Company reiterated Valero Energy Corporation (NYSE: VLO) to Average with price target $20  
Latest Dahlman Rose recommendations:
Dahlman Rose rated Western Refining, Inc. (NYSE: WNR) to Hold
Dahlman Rose rated Tesoro Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: TSO) to Buy with price target $34
Dahlman Rose rated Sunoco, Inc. (NYSE: SUN) to Hold
Dahlman Rose rated Frontier Oil Corporation (NYSE: FTO) to Buy with price target $33