Not yet but we're close.
The trigger should be a downdraft move in world equities.
Look for a 2-4% (27-54 points) upmove in the S&P 500 to the 1370-1400 area followed by a "nobody's getting out alive" crack in the market.
The dollar, currently at 1.37 to the euro could tick up another penny or two but won't breach EUR/USD 1.40 as that would trigger too many limit orders.
When the equities break to the downside the flight to quality (U.S. treasuries) should drop EUR/USD at least 5% to 1.30, which will in turn show commodity punters what kind of emotions can be engendered by the phrase "Limit down".
On the other hand, I bet on the Germans in the Big One.
(it was looking like a lock in the spring of '40)
[he's not that old -ed]
