Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Solar earnings: Oversupply Followed by Demand Spike (FSLR; JKS; TSL; STP; YGE)

I would not want to be short right now.
First up, Reuters:
Solar power companies are likely to surprise investors this earnings season with bright outlooks for 2011 as Italy and the United States ratchet up demand for panels following a cut in government support in the world's largest solar market, Germany.

Fears of a deep regulatory overhaul in Europe have overshadowed solar stocks in recent months, pressuring valuations as investors fretted that subsidy cuts in Germany, France and other markets would cause an oversupply of solar panels that would send panel prices down dramatically and hurt manufacturers' profits.
But makers of solar cells, modules and equipment for the subsidy-dependent sector are expected to deliver strong results for the last three months of 2010, and analysts said demand has remained strong and prices have come down less than expected.

"The Q4 reports as well as the outlook will probably come in better than expected," said Needham & Co analyst Edwin Mok. "Expectations are relatively low for the year and that will drive the stock prices higher. Demand will be pretty strong this year."

U.S. panel maker SunPower Corp will report its fourth-quarter results on Thursday, followed by China's Yingli Green Energy Holding Co Ltd on Friday. U.S. thin film company First Solar Inc, Germany's Q-Cells SE and China's JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd are scheduled to report earnings later this month....MORE
From Tech Trader Daily:
Solar: iSuppli Sees Demand Rebound After Overcapacity Spike

Supplies of photovoltaic materials and products “are set to spike in the first quarter, as a result of a short-term softening in demand for new solar installations,” claims Stefan de Haan with research firm iSuppli this morning, as a result of the decrease in feed-in tariffs, or subsidies in Europe....MORE