Wednesday, November 17, 2010

First Solar Seems Headed for 200-day Moving Average on Credit Suisse Downgrade, Germany, Cramer (FSLR)

The 200-day is currently $126.89. In early pre-market action the stock is down another $1.71 at $128.98.
From Mad Money via Seeking Alpha:
First Solar (FSLR)
Cramer hasn't been a fan of solar, because solar companies depend heavily on government subsidies. However, First Solar (FSLR) was in its own category, because it was best-of-breed and had lower expenses than other solars, since it uses thin-film semiconductors rather than expensive silicon. First Solar had a significant run as far as $290 in 2008. However, Cramer is telling viewers to sell the stock following its 9% decline. The reason: Big money is fleeing First Solar.
Cramer trusted technician Ken Shreve's judgment when he said to get out of Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) ahead of a selloff by institutional investors. According to Shreve's analysis, FSLR is about to have the same fate. The selloff in FSLR occurred when volume was three times its usual rate. This signals big money leaving the stock. First Solar has been stuck under its 50 day moving average, and its down days on heavy volume have outnumbered good days.
"The solar business is a nasty place to be. The best days could be behind First Solar."
I take Cramer's comments to mean the stock is near an immediate-term low. Probable bounce within 24 hours
From Bloomberg:
First Solar Expects German Market to Shrink Next Year, Handelsblatt Says
First Solar Inc. expects the German solar market to shrink in 2011, Handelsblatt reported, citing an interview with Chief Executive Officer Rob Gillette....MORE
Finally the stock was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse. We'll have more on the CS call later today.
Meanwhile, a stroll down memory lane. June 17, 2010 (five months to the day):
Credit Suisse Upgrades First Solar to Outperform (FSLR) Jim Cramer Bearish
In premarket action the stock is up $5.53 at $124.30. This call is totally at odds with the June 8th "Hapoalim Cuts First Solar Target to $65 on Cadmium Telluride Risk; It Won't Matter and Probably Sets an Intermediate Low (FSLR)" and shows a better understanding of the drivers of the business and the stock.

Plus it makes that "Intermediate Low" comment in the headline look all the smarter. Up 16%-19% since that day....
The stock went on to trade over $153 for three days, Sept. 28-30.