From Futures Magazine:
2010: A softs year – But have the trends come to an end?
Last week March 2011 cotton opened at 13250 and closed at 12315. If you were a long-term long you just gave back $4,675 per contract. In March 2011 coffee, we saw a weekly open at 20470 and close at 21125, a $2,456.25 per contract move. And finally, March 2011 sugar opened at 2630 and closed the week at 2615. Nothing major here. However, all of these markets are far from the most recent highs. Cotton hit 15195 on Nov. 10, coffee hit 22145 on the same day and sugar was at 3339 on Nov. 11. These prices were hit coming off a bullish World Ag Supply & Demand report. Of course, China’s move to cool down its economy has spooked many bulls. Actually, thinking about this you need to realize that while China may slow things down a bit, they still need to clothe and feed 1.3 billion people. And let’s not forget the country to their southwest, India. They need to clothe 1.2 billion people. As I am sure you know, these are the two largest populations in the world (the United States comes in at a very distant third with 310 million). When you look at this, China and India have 2.2 billion more people than the United States. I find this an extreme bull for all commodities moving years forward. It is all about timing. Look at the charts below and you will see exactly where and when you would have caught these long uptrending markets. Professional trend followers did extremely well in these markets. I hope you did too. I hope you and your family have a wonderful Thanksgiving. Be well, trade well and follow the trends.
COT data
The legacy report shows commercials went from 49,331 net short to 47,564 net short in cotton.
In coffee the commercials went from 45,661 net short to 35,871 net short, and in sugar we saw the commercials going from 195,931 net short to 174,349 net short. Looking at the charts below, you will see I use the newer Disaggregated COT report. It is far superior for seeing the “big money” movement in the markets.
This form tracks the Commitment of Traders (COT) data for the commodity futures market. This form "looks" at the most recent five weeks of COT data and provides visual indications of the data. A. If the current value is at a 12-month low, the cell will display a red/burgundy background. B. If the current value is at a 12-month high, the cell will display a green background. C. If the current value went from net negative to net positive, the cell will display a blue background (indicating a bullish condition). D. If the current value is both a 12-month high and also went from a net negative to a net positive, the background will be green. You should view the data with green backgrounds to determine if they also went from net negative to net positive.
| Commodity | | | | |
| Cattle (feed) | | | | |
| Cattle (live) | | | | |
| Hogs | | | | |
| Corn | | | | |
| Oats | | | | |
| Soybeans | | | | |
| Soybean meal | | | | |
| Soybean oil | | | | |
| Wheat | | | | |
| Orange juice | | | | |
| Coffee | | | | |
| Cocoa | | | | |
| Sugar | | | | |
| Cotton | | | | |
| British pound | | | | |
| Canada dollar | | | | |
| Euro FX | | | | |
| Japanese yen | | | | |
| Swiss franc | | | | |
| US dollar index | | | | |
| Mexican Peso | | | | |
| Australian dollar | | | | |
| S&P 500 | | | | |
| T-note -10 yr | | | | |
| T-bond -30 yr | | | | |
| Eurodollar | | | | |
| Crude oil | | | | |
| Heating oil | | | | |
| Unleaded gas | | | | |
| Natural gas | | | | |
| Copper | | | | |
| Gold | | | | |
| Platinum | | | | |
| Silver | | | | |
Proceed to Page 3 for this week's detailed fundementals charts...
