One of these days the market is going to have a collective Wile E. Coyote moment:
U.S wheat stockpiles (ending stocks) will come in at approximately 1.1 Billion bushels. This is enough to make up for any Russian shortfall. Worldwide, it is a logistics rather than a supply question. Cargill, Bunge and the rest of the grain guys seem pretty competent at moving stuff around.
The wildcard is Australia. Should it not be able to step up exports there could be localized shortages.
On the other hand La Niña tends to be positive for Australian wheat and could add a million or two metric tonnes.
The next USDA report is due on August 12.