Monday, October 19, 2009

Greenlight Capital's Einhorn Bets on Major Currency ( Yen in particular) "Death Spiral"

Update below.
Original post:
From MarketWatch:
Greenlight Capital is betting on the possibility of a major currency collapse and a surge in interest rates, the hedge-fund firm's manager David Einhorn said Monday, citing ballooning government deficits in some of the world's most developed countries.

Einhorn, who warned about Lehman Brothers' frailty before it collapsed last year, also said financial institutions that are deemed as "too big to fail," such as Citigroup Inc.(C 4.55, -0.04, -0.87%) , should be broken up.

Greenlight has been buying physical gold this year because Einhorn is concerned that efforts to save the financial system and fuel economic recovery are undermining the value of such currencies as the U.S. dollar.

On Monday, he said Greenlight has added new trades to this investment theme, buying long-dated options on much higher interest rates in Japan and other developed regions -- effectively giving the firm the chance to make big profits from a jump in rates. The options, bought from major banks, are tied to interest rates four to five years out, Einhorn noted.

"Japan may already be past the point of no return," he said during a presentation at the Value Investing Congress in New York....MORE

Via Infectious Greed's post "Text of David Einhorn's Speech: Up With Gold; Down With Dentists":

Einhorn on gold, sovereign default, and more

Two years ago, when he spoke at the Value Investing Congress, David Einhorn said Lehman was in deep trouble. Turned out it was a good call. Today he gave another keynote at the conference in which he argued the policies of the administration have put us on a very dangerous path, one which has encouraged him to buy physical gold as insurance against sovereign default(s).

Here’s a pdf of the speech. A few highlights below....MORE

Text of David Einhorn's Speech: Up With Gold; Down With Dentists