Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Dow 10000: ‘It’s Lost Its Novelty’

We closed at 10,015.86. As I said after the September 23 intraday reversal (closing down 81 after being up 107):
Yesterday's drop did not mark the top, that's not how bull runs end. More later....
Today's gain didn't mark the top either.
In keeping with my Delphic opacity we had eight days earlier posted "Equities: How Will We Know the Intermediate Top?":
The flippant answer is "the market will tell us". Either we roll over on expanding volume, failing to set new highs or we have a spike up. That's how bull runs end.

For folks attempting to get a jump on the action, they had better be watching the US Dollar Index. When it turns up you'll have a fighting chance on the short side in equities. As usual, you pays your money and you takes your chances.
If our Sept. 15 call of S&P 1125 (1092 at today's close) sometime in October turns out to be correct, great. If not, the market is really, really good at humbling one.
Right now I am suffering from a jaded [hey, that's 'green' !-ed] ennui.
Here's the headline story from MarketBeat:

Ahh… the memories. It was March 29, 1999. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had just closed above 10,000 points for the first time amid the euphoric atmosphere that pervaded the tech-driven stock market rally.

From a balcony at the New York Stock Exchange, Richard Grasso, the exchange’s then-chairman, New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani gaveled the session closed and tossed commemorative blue hats emblazoned with “Dow 10,000″ into crowds of eager traders at the closing bell.

“They rained them down on everybody,” said Bernie McSherry, a longtime market watcher at NYSE floor brokerage Cuttone & Co. He was on the floor when the market notched that once remarkable milestone. “That 10,000 number was just something that was beyond the imagination for a long time,” he said.

But like so many things, it’s hard to match the thrill of the first time. Since first cracking 10000, the venerable Dow has meandered across the 10,000-level no less than fifty times — sometimes rising and sometimes falling....MORE
Here's their follow-up post:

Old Hat: Dow 10000, a History in Headwear

The thrill may well be gone from Dow 10000. After all, we’ve crossed it going higher 26 times, by the count of Dow Jones’ elite squad of numbers crunchers — including today’s split-second first brush by 10K at 1:22 p.m. (We’ve since been back and forth across a couple more times and are currently hanging on above 10000.)

But in keeping with the gallows humor familiar to those on Wall Street, some traders have taken to breaking out commemorative caps originally issued by the NYSE to mark the euphoric first time we crossed Dow 10000 in something of a tongue-in-cheek salute to 10K. Here is a brief pictorial, headwear history of Dow 10000....MORE