It's been a lively year so far for commodities, with gold prices surging past $1,000 an ounce and crude managing to double in price over the course of six months, but as the energy and metals markets head into the fourth-quarter, they're likely to yield many more surprises -- not all of them good.
"The surprise may be that the bull run in commodities for this year is probably over," said Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at PFGBest. "Fiscal stimulus such as quantitative easing was a major factor in the market's big run."
'The surprise may be that the bull run in commodities for this year is probably over.'
Phil Flynn, PFGBest
So for now, most commodities may be close to or have already seen their highs for the near term, but some analysts see a promising longer-term future.
Crude-oil futures traded below $35 per barrel in mid-February, then jumped to as high as $75 in late August and gold futures dropped to as low as $805 an ounce in mid-January, then recovered to trade above $1,020. Still, both commodities have struggled to stay solidly above their key levels, apparently lacking the proper support.
"The Fed giveth, but the Fed also taketh away," said Flynn. "Hopefully the next rally in commodities will be inspired not by central bank intervention, but because prices have fallen to a level where they inspire economic activity and natural demand growth.">>>MORE
Friday, October 2, 2009
Commodities markets have more surprises to unwrap