Tuesday, September 1, 2009

The Solar Stocks as a Leading Indicator for the Overall Market (TAN,)

There is an old trader's saying that "As soon as you think you've found the key, they go and change the lock".
We first mentioned the possible correlation in "SunPower Soars 27% on Q2 Beat; Upgrades Galore (SPWRA)":

Reiterated August 11 in "Solar Stocks Getting Crushed: JASO; LDK; SOLF; SOLR; STP;TSL; YGE":

This could be bad news for the overall market. As we posted on July 24:

Through all the ups and downs over the last year I have the impression that the solars have led the general market in the magnitude of the moves and possibly been an indicator. This is a subjective observation, I haven't gone back to check the numbers but I do have a fairly good memory.
[which explains all the self-reverential links? -ed]
The Nasdaq list of leading decliners has five solars in the twenty worst (via the WSJ's Markets Data Center)...
Here's the chart of the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy ETF vs. the S&P 500 via Yahoo Finance:
Chart for Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy (TAN)