On July 14 Credit Suisse had the worst analyst call I've ever seen: "Ahead of the Bell: Credit Suisse cuts airlines (AAI: ALK; CAL; UAUA)". The CS analyst went to a sell rec. the day before the airline stocks bottomed, following 90% declines. We flatly disagreed, three days earlier having written:
"...And the stock tip? Buy some airlines for a one week trade. The strongest stocks seem to be NWA and DAL, although LCC and CAL might give you a bigger pop.On July 16 the stocks were up between 26 and 41% for the day. Followed by:
Remember though it's a trade. There's a real risk they could go out of business."
On July 22:
Ahem... US Airways and UAL are Up... (LCC; UAUA)
...56 and 57%, today. One of our loyal readers may be in the money in the "CNBC Million Dollar Challenge" because of "Dear CFTC: About those Oil Markets. And: A Stock Tip".When the stocks had moved 160 to 270% in thirty days:
We'll be setting up a PayPal account to celebrate his good fortune should he walk with any GE loot.
On the other hand, this untimely bastard may be out of a job. First he waits for the stocks to drop 90% before changing his ratings, then, well it doesn't get any worse (Monday, July 14, 2008):...
How (not) to Do Stock Price Forecasting- Credit Suisse Edition
Finally on Sept. 4 we linked to a Clusterstock post:
Continental Airlines: Oil Spike Not Over, Stock To $9. Or $45. Whatever (CAL)
Now we're seeing the same type of action following last weeks: "UBS Turns Cautious On Solar; Sees Slowdown in Germany; Downgrades SPWRA, ESLR, ENER, SOLR":
Okay, let me get this straight. I'll use the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy ETF as a proxy for the group. It began trading April 15. First tick was $25.84. As recently as August 29 it was trading above that price, closing that day at $26.28. Here's the chart (from Yahoo Finance):
The ETF just traded at $7.90. By my slide rule that's down 69.94% in the two months prior to the ratings changes. Here's the story from Tech Trader Daily:...Here's the five day chart on TAN, which just traded at $11.98 UP 51.64% in a week: