Tuesday, October 28, 2008

UBS Turns Cautious On Solar; Sees Slowdown in Germany; Downgrades SPWRA, ESLR, ENER, SOLR

Okay, let me get this straight. I'll use the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy ETF as a proxy for the group. It began trading April 15. First tick was $25.84. As recently as August 29 it was trading above that price, closing that day at $26.28. Here's the chart (from Yahoo Finance):
Chart for Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy (TAN)

The ETF just traded at $7.90. By my slide rule that's down 69.94% in the two months prior to the ratings changes. Here's the story from Tech Trader Daily:
UBS analyst Stephen Chin turned more cautious on the solar sector this morning, asserting that the industry is going to be significantly affected by the emerging global recession. He cut his estimate on 2008 solar demand to 4.4 GW from 5 GW; for 2008, he now sees 5 GW, down from 7.3 GW. In particular, he notes that the German market is likely to be just 1.5 GW in both 2008 and 2009, below his previous estimates of 2 GW this year and 3 GW next year. “Our industry research suggests the residential segment in most regions is becoming less elastic in a global recession with difficulty obtaining credit,” he writes....MORE
"Three score and ten percent ago our analyst set forth upon this industry a new rating, conceived in fantasy and dedicated to the proposition..."
Good grief.