Monday, October 27, 2008

How Bad Can it Get? The Lost Quarter-Century

The incredible growth of credit over the last thirty years must be unwound. It fueled a fantasy worldwide economy and as with most every aspect of human existence, when fantasy collides with reality, reality eventually wins.

If the truth of the above statement is accepted, it becomes a policy question as to how fast the deleveraging should proceed. If the U.S. follows the Japanese playbook it can be ugliness protracted.
From Bespoke Investment Group:

Japan in the 1990s was the original "lost decade," even though the current decade for the US is now considered the same. But now that the Nikkei 225 is currently trading at its lowest levels since October 1982, it really is the "lost quarter century" for Japan.