Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Corn, Soybeans Jump on Demand Outlook Before Revised U.S. Data

Yesterday's abbreviated report was the talk of the pits. Processors (packaged food, ethanol) should have no complaint about current input costs. Lower oil and commodity prices don't seem to be flowing through to the retail level yet so someones margins should be up. After we posted Teresa Lo's warning on General Mills Sept. 22, I lost track of the food companies. The stock was around $70.00, it closed at $63.71 yesterday.
I'm hearing that a lot of farmers are holding this years crop over the winter in hope of higher prices next spring. Here's the ag story from Bloomberg:
Corn and soybeans gained for a second day on speculation price drops to the lowest in a year may boost export demand and on concern that U.S. acreage forecasts may be revised down in a government report today.

Corn fell as low as $3.64 a bushel yesterday, the lowest since Oct. 25, 2007, and has tumbled 49 percent from a record in late June. Soybeans have fallen 42 percent from a record in early July, touching $8.38 on Oct. 16, the lowest since August 2007. The U.S. government will revise its October production data today.

``It's bargain hunting,'' Kaname Gokon, deputy manager of research at Okato Shoji Co., said by phone in Tokyo. With declining freight costs, the recent drops in corn and soybeans have boosted interest among overseas buyers, he said.

Corn for December delivery rose as much as 19.75 cents, or 5.1 percent, to $4.05 a bushel in electronic trading in Chicago and was at $4.0475 at 4:18 p.m. Singapore time. The price, which gained 3.4 percent yesterday, reached a record $7.9925 on June 27.

Soybeans for January delivery gained as much as 54.5 cents, or 6.1 percent, to $9.52 a bushel and stood at $9.485 by 4:19 p.m. Singapore time. Futures touched a record $16.3675 on July 3.

The National Agriculture Statistics Service, a unit of the USDA, will release a revised October crop-production report today with corrected acreage estimates. The USDA didn't provide further details about the report, which will be released at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. The original report was released Oct. 10....MORE