From FT Alphaville:
At the bottom of a panic, the news doesn’t have to be good for stocks to rally, it just has to be less bad than what has already been discounted. I want the markets to stop going down on bad corporate and macro-economic news. The fact that it still does shows the bad news has not yet been fully discounted. I have no idea when the next bull market starts, but I do think we are setting up for the mother of all bear market rallies.
So declares the managing partner at Traxis Partners.
MarketBeat gives us some backround:
The Standard & Poor’s 49ers
The jury is still out on whether the equity market has reached a level that warrants buying shares — plenty of pessimists abound — but the declines in the S&P, by one measure, are best compared against the post-World War II period.
According to Bianco Research, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, as of Thursday, was nearly 52% from its all-time high, the furthest the S&P has been from its all-time high since 1949 — when, at its nadir in June of that year, it stood at 57.43% from its all-time closing high. The vicious decline in the equity market in the last few weeks has caused a few long-time bears to come out of the cave, including Bennet Sedacca of Atlantic Advisors LLC, who noted Friday that his firm went “half-long” for a rally that “could last longer than some think.” He says he’s sticking to large-cap companies with strong balance sheets and “a little tech and financials thrown in.”>>>MORE
We've dropped further without a twenty percent rally than I can remember.
(too busy to dig up the stats right now, sorry)