Friday, November 14, 2008

The Bounce at DJIA 8000

Then lower.
Then higher.
Higher, lower....lot of help I am huh?
Like a lot of commentators, we posted the target levels of the October lows. Our post was "S&P 500 threatens to violate major support" on Tuesday. It seems like a good time to remind readers of the sub-head from a September 6, post:

Those who know do not speak,
those who speak do not know.
-Lao Tzu
The Tao Te Ching

Nobody knows anything
-William Goldman
Adventures in the Screen Trade
From MarketBeat:

The Summit Above 8000

Market recoveries often feature a re-testing of previous lows, followed by dramatic turnarounds. And while this can cause indigestion for some, plenty of traders are aggressively using this to their advantage.

On Oct. 10, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 7882.51, establishing a five-year intraday low for the index, then bounced to close at 8451. On Oct. 27, the index hit its five-year closing low of 8175.77, only to jump more than 600 points in the next session. Thursday, outlook warnings from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Intel Corp. pushed the Dow once again below that key 8000 level, before stocks rallied....MUCH MORE including this:

Somebody’s got to say it,
This is a very dangerous game we’re playing.
Like a lot of public commentators, we pointed out the Oct. 27 closing and Oct. 10 intraday numbers (contra this post, we had 7773.71 for Oct. 10).
Every pro I know had those levels tattooed in their brain.
So we had group-think kick in and “Hey, we sure called that”.
The risk is getting complacent with the elevator stopping at the lobby.
Should the recession be deeper or longer than expected it won’t stop at “L”. It might end up at the lowest parking level.
Anybody with a fiduciary responsibility should remember the old trader’s saying:
“As soon as you find the key, they go and change the lock”.

Comment by Climateer - November 14, 2008 at 10:39 am