Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Sometimes You Just have to Laugh. And: The 100 Year Bear market

Okay, We've given up any pretense to sanity. It struck me last night as the CNBC talking heads were chattering about the "reason" the DJIA was up 11.8% in two days. They seemed to agree that the combination of a Treasury Secretary designate with experience putting out fires and the bailout of the country's former 'largest bank' justified this move and more.
Good Grief.
From MarketWatch:
After 'Great Depression 2' in 2011, a 100-year bear market?

What is next? If the "Great Depression 2" scenario plays out, what's after 2011? Recovery? A new bull? How can you protect your money? Or are we all helpless victims of the raging winds of fate and Wall Street's self-serving brand of capitalism.

Nightmare scenario No. 1
: No exit, a never-ending disaster Remember former Goldman Chairman John Whitehead? He "sees" a tragic ending: This Reagan Deputy Secretary of State and former New York Fed chairman "sees" America burning through trillions, over many years: "Nothing but large increases in the deficit ... worse than the Depression."...

...Nightmare scenario No. 3: The endless 100-year bear market
Robert Prechter's a brilliant market forecaster and editor of the Elliott Wave Theorist newsletter. As early as 1978 he predicted the "raging bull market of the 1980s." Many laughed. Then tech roared and he became "Guru of the Decade."
In the "Rashomon" cast he's credible. And ahead again: He "saw" the future in his "At the Crest of the Wave: A Forecast of the Great Bear Market." Today's darkening markets ride his "wave" theories: Rapidly unfolding, accelerating and intensifying economic cycles. First the dot-com crash, then the subprime housing bull, the credit meltdown, now the coming "Great Depression 2."

In the '90s, Prechter had another vision from deep in the forest. Again we ignored him. No more. The same wisdom that let him "see" the 1980's bull years before it took off, may accurately predict the coming 100-year bear market well ahead of time....MUCH MORE.
Here's Mr. Farrell's
"A 100-year bear market?"
Today's headlines confirm Prechter's dark predictions