Monday, November 3, 2008

Solar: Barclay’s Sees Module Prices Headed Sharply Lower; Production Cuts Ahead; Downgrades CSIQ, STP

There is one Chinese solar that uses the U.S. dollar as their functional currency. From Tech Trader Daily:

While solar stocks have plunged 60% over the last three months, there could be more downside ahead, Barclay’s solar analyst Vishal Shah warned this morning.

In a series of research notes, Shah cautions that the solar sector financial reports for the remainder of the third quarter reporting period “could turn out to be disappointing as concerns over potential inventory build triggered by [the] credit environment and FX headwinds prompt companies to maintain a cautious outlook on Q4 and [first half 2009] earnings.”

Shah notes that the solar companies he follows generate more than 90% of revenue from Europe. He says that for some companies selling into the European market in Euros and purchasing supplies in Chinese renminbi, gross margins could drop from over 20% in the first half of 2008 to well below 10% over the next several quarters. Shah also sees increasing risks of channel inventory build in Europe “as the credit markets outside of Germany completely frozen and even within Germany, large projects above 4 MW are likely to face greater difficulty in securing financing.”>>>MORE