Thursday, October 9, 2008

Recessions and Stock Market Bottoms

So far, we are two hundred points too early on the rally call. Funny, it seems like it's only been a couple hours. This is a repost from July 14, 2008:

We've got too many feedreaders and terminals and I really need DARPA to get cracking on the mind-machine interface link/bookmark retrieval thing. All this whining is due to a misplaced link.
We've got 45,000 of the suckers in the link-vault so I can probably jury-rig a post without it,
First up, from Dividend Growth Investor, the length of bear markets:

Since 1956 however the average duration of bear markets has been about fourteen months. The average decline since 1929 has been 38.2% versus 31.8% since 1956.

It has taken S&P 500 about 5.2 years on average to recover from to above its bear market highs since 1929. If we check the same parameter starting in 1956 the average recovery time from a bear market comes out to 2.8 years on average....MUCH MORE, including charts.