Hurricane Watch: Dolly slowly organizing, having trouble with dry air

From Wunderblog:

...The track forecast
The models are pretty united in forecasting a track towards the Texas/Mexico border over the next day, with a sharp decrease in forward speed Tuesday. Significant uncertainty creeps into the forecast when this deceleration occurs and the steering currents weaken. The models have differing solutions on the orientation and strength of the ridge of high pressure steering Dolly, and the storm could come ashore anywhere within the cone of uncertainty--from northern Mexico to Corpus Christi, Texas. Tropical storm force winds will impact a 200-mile long stretch of coast.

From Bloomberg:

Oil Is Steady as Storm Forecast to Miss Gulf Production Areas

Crude oil traded little changed as forecasters said a storm in the Gulf of Mexico will probably miss U.S. oil fields and refineries, easing concern that supplies will be disrupted.

Tropical Storm Dolly is predicted to come ashore tomorrow near the Texas border with Mexico, south of the Gulf of Mexico area that accounts for about 25 percent of U.S. oil output, the National Hurricane Center said. U.S. crude supplies probably dropped last week as near-record prices discouraged buying, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

``We're expecting Dolly to miss the row of refineries that lies in the Gulf of Mexico,'' said Robert Laughlin, senior broker at MF Global Ltd. in London....MORE

HT: Environmental Capital