IT'S OFFICIAL: THE BEAR HAS ARRIVED. The Dow Jones Industrial Average last week qualified for the widely accepted definition of a bear market of a 20% drop from the highs. The good news is that once the decline reaches that arbitrary 20% mark, based on history, the market has suffered most of its losses. The bad news is that the decline typically drags on for some time, and time may be the worst enemy. Investors may initially try to grab erstwhile highfliers that have crashed and burned but rarely regain their former status. And as the decline wears down investors' psyches, they tend to bail out at the market's nadir, when things look bleakest -- and when the greatest opportunities present themselves.
The post-1940 average bear market (as defined by the Standard & Poor's 500 index) produced a decline of 30.4% from a peak that took 386 days to reach its trough, according to data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group. By the time the market was down the requisite 20%, the average bear market was 74% completed. Based on those averages, the bear market would have another 118 days to run and would face losses of another 14% from current levels.
Rarely does the market get a short, sharp shock, as in 1987, when the bear market lasted just 101 days -- with most of the total damage of 22.51% done on Black Monday, Oct. 19. The longest march downward was the 1973-74 decline, which took 630 days and sliced 48.2% off the S&P....MORE
Monday, July 7, 2008
The Bear's Back