In 2002, I wrote in the London Evening Standard, This is Money's sister title, about an appealing theory that claimed to accurately predict the future for the stock market. The prediction? US shares would race higher before beginning a decade-long slump in 2008. UK shares would be close behind...
So crudely, the theory is based on sex....MORE'Investors should brace themselves for one of the most powerful rallies the UK has ever seen before the stock market falls into a Japan-style recession that could last for a decade or more. A slide in London house prices, starting from about 2008, is expected to be the first sign that the good times are over in the UK before the economy - and share prices - languish until at least 2022.
'The theory goes that a tidal wave of babies born after the Second World War is reaching the optimal spending age of 46 - couples begin to spend more because their children fly the nest. In marketing circles, it is known as the Harley-Davidson effect: the biggest buyers of the bikes are men in their fifties. This spending drives the economy and, therefore, stock markets.'
