Wednesday, November 7, 2007

The Sharply Lower U.S. Dollar Is Friendly Toward The Pork Market Over The Long Term

Supplying food to China. Not quite as high tech as I would have hoped for the U.S. economy.
From Inside Futures:

The broken record continued on Tuesday, hog futures closed lower led by the front end. Fresh contract lows were posted in the Dec futures as active rolling of positions out of Dec and into the Feb and Apr decimated the bull spread.

The Goldman roll officially starts today. Expect additional pressure in the bull spreads for the next several days. This current push likely will put a low in the Dec/Feb spread, likely in the 850 to 900 under range. It's possible as this spread bottoms, the board will also develop some kind of short term low.

However, I have no desire to play the long side of the market. Buyers continue to move into the back end, mostly the summer hog contracts. Open interest continues to swell with record high open interest in hog futures the past two days. The weekly belly out-of-town report continues to demonstrate excellent bacon usage. Last week's IN movement was slightly smaller than last year's despite the fact that production exceeded last year by over 6%. Demand for U.S. pork is good, no doubt about it. Also, the acceleration down in the U.S. dollar is "very friendly" toward the pork market....MORE