Hot Chips 2026 Has Kicked Off With Micron Warning The Memory Shortage Is Getting Worse (Mandy Rice-Davies moment ahead) MU

Well they would wouldn't they?* 

The big get together at Stanford's Memorial Auditorium always sells out and this year we'll be visiting a few media outlets for their on-the-ground takes on what's being said.

The article below is based on Micron's Sunday tutorial, here's the rest of the schedule of events:

https://hotchips.org/

From WccfTech, August 23:

Micron Says AI’s Memory Wall is Worsening as Compute outruns HBM Bandwidth by 3x every Two Years, Advanced Packaging & Process To Tackle Rising Thermal Constraints

Micron explores what High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is, why it is essential, how it compares to traditional DDR, and the key challenges that demand further innovation to sustain AI’s growing demands.

Micron Reveals HBM Failures Caused 17% of Meta's Llama 3 Training Interruptions as the Memory Wall Deepens

As AI LLMs continue to evolve, the need for advanced memory technologies has become vital for the continuous scaling and improvement of these models. But memory is now becoming a major bottleneck that is limiting the performance of AI systems. 

HBM is currently the leading DRAM type used in leading AI accelerators. To attain maximum operations on a typical AI system, a large portion of the work is bound by memory as compute processors wait for more data to arrive. Once the work is complete, the system enters a compute-bound phase in which data is delivered to it fast enough to keep the processors busy. With HBM, the memory bandwidth ceiling is elevated, allowing memory-intensive AI workloads to achieve higher performance before hitting memory limits.

Micron's HBM Design Architecture Fellow, Raghu Sreeramaneni, shed light on this "Memory Well" during its Hot Chips 2026 presentation. The company states that while compute capabilities are advancing at a rate of 3x every two years, memory is only advancing at <2x every two years. Currently, there are three types of memory architectures: 2.5D attached memory, 2.5D advanced memory, and Processing-in-memory DRAM....

*****

...The key takeaways of the Hot Chips 2026 talk include:

• Memory is central to scaling LLM performance (more compute, larger datasets, more parameters).
• Compute scales ~3× every two years; HBM bandwidth scales only ~2× every two years → the memory wall persists and may be worsening.
• In a typical GPU SIP with four 12-high HBM stacks, memory silicon accounts for ~90% of the total silicon (8× the GPU silicon).
• HBM is the most cross-functionally complex memory solution (packaging + process + design) in a form factor the size of a postage stamp.
• AI workloads are often memory-bound; higher HBM bandwidth shifts the roofline upward and unlocks more of the processor’s peak performance.
• Stack heights have grown from 4-high to 16-high (path to 20-high exists but faces major thermal/mechanical hurdles).
• Meta’s Llama 3 training paper attributed 17% of unintended interruptions to HBM.

.....MUCH MORE 
*Mandy Rice-Davies was a former model and showgirl known for her role in the Profumo affair.

When informed by the prosecuting attorney that Lord Astor disputed her version of events and denied having an affair she responded:

"Well, he would, wouldn't he?"

Although Many died in 2014 we are keepers of her memory

Mandy Rice-Davies Alert: Christina Romer Says Maximum Tax Revenue at 84% Marginal Rate
She would, wouldn't she.*

*For British politicians of a certain age [often referred to as octo or nona-genarians -ed] the scandal surrounding Secretary of State for War John Profumo's affair with the alleged mistress of a Russian spy was highlighted by the testimony of Miss Rice-Davies, a friend of the alleged mistress, Christine Keeler.
From Wikipedia:

While giving evidence at the trial of Stephen Ward, charged with living off the immoral earnings of Keeler and Rice-Davies, the latter made a famous riposte. When the prosecuting counsel pointed out that Lord Astor denied an affair or having even met her, she replied, "Well, he would, wouldn't he?"

We've tried to keep the phrase alive, using it about once per year:

2007
Gore Says Markets are Key in Battle to Combat Climate Change

"Well, he would, wouldn't he?"
Mandy Rice Davies*

2007
ICE, Skating on Thin

TESTIMONY OF JEFFREY C. SPRECHER CHAIRMAN AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, INTERCONTINENTALEXCHANGE, INC.

Warning: Mandy Rice-Davies moment ahead.

"...we do not believe that a complete overhaul of the current regulatory structure is either warranted or advisable."

2008
UN Can Regulate Emissions Trading Without Conflict of Interest

All together now: A Mandy Rice-Davies Moment!*

2009
Major Problems at California's Public Pension Fund, CalPERS And: A Mandy Rice-Davies Moment!

One of these days I'll have to tell the story of how CalPERS got to this point. It is an ugly tale. For now we'll just post the slow motion train wreck.
On a positive note: Mandy Rice-Davies* moment ahead!  

One of my favorite usages:

Lord McIntosh of Haringey:  My Lords, I am proud of many things that this Government have done. I pause to anticipate the interjection—"He would say that, wouldn't he?"...

Lords Hansard text for 6 Feb 2002

And many more over the years. 

Mandy Rice-Davies Moment Ahead: "BlackRock CEO calls for Social Security revamp"

Mandy Rice-Davies [was] a former model and showgirl known for her role in the Profumo affair.
When informed by the prosecuting attorney that Lord Astor disputed her version of events and denied having an affair she responded:

"Well, he would, wouldn't he?"

From Pitchbook, March 23: 

Larry Fink says Social Security dollars should be invested in assets that generate wealth rather than merely ensuring stability. 

BlackRock chief executive Larry Fink has called for Social Security funds to be invested in a broader range of asset classes to turn the program into an engine of wealth generation, a move that would benefit his firm.

In an investor letter released on Monday, Fink said that the current Social Security system, which channels funds primarily into US Treasury bonds, serves as a safety net rather than giving citizens a stake in the country’s future growth.

“In effect, workers lend money to the government and receive defined benefits in return,” he said. “The structure, designed as a social insurance program, emphasizes stability and predictability. What it doesn’t do is let people grow their benefits along with the broader economy.”

To address barriers to everyday Americans investing, Fink proposed measures such as emergency savings accounts and early wealth-building programs—such as child investment accounts seeded with government or private funding—to help more individuals accumulate wealth over time. He specifically named Trump Accounts, a new type of investment account launching this year that allows parents to save for their kids’ retirement, as a form of the innovations he’d like to see.

As nations shift toward self-reliance—increasingly investing in energy, defense and technology—Fink stressed that expanding individual participation in capital markets is critical to supporting that pivot.

He argued that the current Social Security system emphasizes stability rather than enabling Americans to build long-term wealth through sharing the country’s future growth. He questioned whether the system could be more like a long-term pension plan, allowing a portion of funds to be invested in diversified assets.

Meanwhile, Fink warns that AI could accelerate wealth disparities, as gains are likely to concentrate among companies that have the resources and infrastructure to deploy it at scale. Against this backdrop, building wealth will also require owning a stake in AI-powered growth....

....MUCH MORE 

Today's introduction and much more on Mandy (backlinks, vignettes) can be found at January 2024's:

Mandy Rice-Davies Moment Ahead: "Biden Adviser Sees Limited Inflation Impact From Red Sea Attacks"

"The Launch Failure of GPT-5 Shows OpenAI is in Decline" (plus a Mandy Rice-Davies moment)

When I read this paragraph in the post immediately preceding this one, all I could think of was Mandy.*

Sam Altman, for instance, has backed away from his earlier suggestions that GPT-5 would represent a meaningful step toward A.G.I., and now dismisses A.G.I. as an unrealistic near-term target....

From AI Supremecy, August 12:

After such a long wait, we get one of the strangest Model launches in history, and OpenAI is reeling from the fall-out 

Hey Everyone,

Welcome to another article from AI Supremacy, a Newsletter about AI at the intersection of tech, business, society and the future. Welcome to join our new community.

This article is intended as an introduction to some of the issues OpenAI with the launch of GPT-5 are facing from many varied voices, including OpenAI’s own PR. How the two contrast is fairly striking in August, 2025.  

In the days following the GPT-5 backlash, OpenAI have tried to take steps to improve the ChatGPT experience:

1. Added three modes for GPT-5: "Auto," "Fast," and "Thinking" to give users more control over how they interact with the model

2. Improved the model switching system that they claim was routing queries incorrectly

3. Sam Altman quickly announced that GPT-4o would remain available for Plus users after admitting they "underestimated how much some of the things that people like in GPT-4o matter to them"

4. Addressed the performance inconsistencies that made GPT-5 appear less capable than previous models

5. Raised GPT-5 Thinking mode rate limits from 200 weekly messages to 3,000 messages per week

6. Added overflow capacity shifting to GPT-5 Thinking mini

7. Personality changes: Altman announced plans to make GPT-5's personality "warmer than the current personality but not as annoying (to most users) as GPT-4o".....

....MUCH MORE, it's a deep dive

The Register, August 13 - "OpenAI's GPT-5 looks less like AI evolution and more like cost cutting"

And Mandy?

Mandy Rice-Davies [was] a former model and showgirl known for her role in the Profumo affair.
When informed by the prosecuting attorney that Lord Astor disputed her version of events and denied having an affair she responded:

"Well, he would, wouldn't he?"

We are keepers of the M.R-D flame:
Mandy Rice-Davies Alert: Christina Romer Says Maximum Tax Revenue at 84% Marginal Rate
She would, wouldn't she.*

*For British politicians of a certain age [often referred to as octo or nona-genarians -ed] the scandal surrounding Secretary of State for War John Profumo's affair with the alleged mistress of a Russian spy was highlighted by the testimony of Miss Rice-Davies, a friend of the alleged mistress, Christine Keeler.
From Wikipedia:

While giving evidence at the trial of Stephen Ward, charged with living off the immoral earnings of Keeler and Rice-Davies, the latter made a famous riposte. When the prosecuting counsel pointed out that Lord Astor denied an affair or having even met her, she replied, "Well, he would, wouldn't he?"

We've tried to keep the phrase alive, using it about once per year:

2007
Gore Says Markets are Key in Battle to Combat Climate Change

"Well, he would, wouldn't he?"
Mandy Rice Davies*

2007
ICE, Skating on Thin

TESTIMONY OF JEFFREY C. SPRECHER CHAIRMAN AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, INTERCONTINENTALEXCHANGE, INC.

Warning: Mandy Rice-Davies moment ahead.

"...we do not believe that a complete overhaul of the current regulatory structure is either warranted or advisable."

2008
UN Can Regulate Emissions Trading Without Conflict of Interest

All together now: A Mandy Rice-Davies Moment!*

2009
Major Problems at California's Public Pension Fund, CalPERS And: A Mandy Rice-Davies Moment!

One of these days I'll have to tell the story of how CalPERS got to this point. It is an ugly tale. For now we'll just post the slow motion train wreck.
On a positive note: Mandy Rice-Davies* moment ahead!  

One of my favorite usages:

Lord McIntosh of Haringey:  My Lords, I am proud of many things that this Government have done. I pause to anticipate the interjection—"He would say that, wouldn't he?"...

Lords Hansard text for 6 Feb 2002

"BIS sees a tokenized future but stablecoins as unsound money"

The easy riposte to the BIS would be a Mandy Rice-Davies "Well he would, wouldn't he" but there is more to their objection than simply preferring Central Bank Digital Currencies to the DCs that lack the CB imprimatur. 

From Ledger Insights, June 24:

Today the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the central bank to central banks, released a chapter of its Annual report, “The next-generation monetary and financial system,” outlining its vision for a tokenized economy. The BIS sees tokenized deposits dominating retail payments with wholesale central bank digital currencies (wCBDC) enabling interbank settlement, but argues stablecoins lack the fundamental features of sound money.

Why stablecoins are flawed

The BIS identifies three critical flaws in stablecoins: they lack singleness, elasticity and integrity. Singleness refers to universal acceptance without question, requiring token holders to know they can always exchange $1 for a dollar rather than 99 cents or less. The BIS says this is only possible through central bank money settling bank transactions.

Elasticity means central banks and commercial banks can grant credit to expand the money supply. “Where you have very complex interlocking payment obligations, if you had to wait for the incoming payments before you have sufficient liquidity to execute your own outgoing payment, that would be a recipe for gridlock,” explained Hyun Song Shin, the Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the BIS during a media briefing.

“That feature cannot be satisfied with stablecoins because stablecoins need the backing reserves upfront. So unless you actually have the balances
already in your wallet, you cannot execute that payment,” said Mr Shin. “So I think for large value payments that elasticity is going to be absolutely key.” (Italics is our emphasis.)

The integrity problem stems from stablecoins being “digital bearer instruments on borderless public blockchains” that have become “the go-to choice for illicit use to bypass integrity safeguards,” according to the report.

Beyond these fundamental issues, the BIS warns stablecoins threaten monetary sovereignty through dollarization and could destabilize government debt markets when issuers sell reserves en masse during crises....

....MUCH MORE 

*We first presented Mandy on the blog in October 2007. Since then she visits to point out any self-serving comment that strikes her as especially bald-faced:

Mandy was a whore with a minor role in the Profumo scandal of 1963.
Here's how Wikipedia tells the story:

...Rice-Davies came to London , where she met Christine Keeler and a well-connected osteopath Stephen Ward. As a result of her involvement in Ward's social set, she became intimate with many powerful people, including the then Viscount Astor. She never in fact met John Profumo, whose brief relationship with Keeler, with whom Rice-Davies shared a flat, was at the centre of the affair that caused him to resign from the government in June 1963. Rice-Davies had been one of the mistresses of notorious slum landlord Peter Rachman who had owned the flat she shared with Keeler.

"He would, wouldn't he?"

While giving evidence at the trial of Stephen Ward, Rice-Davies made the quip for which she is most remembered and which is frequently used by politicians in Britain^[2]. When the prosecuting counsel pointed out that Lord Astor denied having an affair or having even met her, she replied,  

"Well, he would, wouldn't he?"....

1. ^ This quote later became a common saying in British politics, often altered to "He would say that, wouldn't he?" Examples follow in these links:
   • Scottish Parliament committee news release 22 February 2001 "So perhaps there is a slight Mandy Rice Davies feel to this backing with a hint of 'well he would, wouldn't he?'."
   • Lords Hansard text for 6 Feb 2002 "I pause to anticipate the interjection—'He would say that, wouldn't he?'" spoken by Lord McIntosh of Haringey.
   • Well he would say that, wouldn't he? by Bronwen Maddox in The Times January 11, 2006

Société Générale's Albert Edwards Describes The Great Debt Endgame

From Australia's MacroBusiness, May 3:

Albert Edwards of Societe General.

---

Not much shocks me in the world of economics and finance nowadays, but the latest IMF report on the US fiscal situation stunned me into momentary silence.

Having dusted myself down and digested the report more fully,I thought I would pen some thoughts about where we may be heading over the next few years.

Recent events have taught us to think the unthinkable.

 While the mainstream media fixates on the differences between presidential candidates Trump and Biden, there is one thing both (an dindeed both parties jostling for control of Congress) appear to agree on: an ever deeper fiscal deficit is nothing to worry about.

 Sure, we all knew the deficit had grown under the ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ etal, but it still shocked me that the latest IMF calculations show the overall government fiscal deficit exploded to 8.8% of GDP in 2023 from 4.1% in 2022 (see chart below). Wow!

 First, there is the mind-boggling magnitude of the deficit at a time of near full employment.

Second, the whipsawing of the US deficit over the last couple of years helps explain why GDP stalled in 2022 but then surprised on the upside in 2023 when most economists were forecasting recession.

These data may also give us some pointers to the GDP for the rest of 2024, which faces notable fiscal retrenchment on the IMF data–and in the medium term, their warning of an explosive and unsustainable debt situation.

 The outsized fiscal deficit also helps explain the recent behaviour of the equity market.

For as my former colleague James Montier recently pointed out in a mea culpa, the surprisingly large fiscal deficit is one of the key reasons for the booming corporate profit margins-link.

This is simply explained by a series of National Income Account ‘identities’ known as the ‘Kalecki Profit Equation’.

 The FT headline for its story on the IMF report couldn’t have been any blunter: “The IMFhas warned the US that its massive fiscal deficits have stoked inflation and pose ‘significant risks’ for the global economy.”.

Where does this end?

 Grant Williams is famous for his newsletter, “Things That Make You Go Hmmm”@ttmygh. Of late he has been interviewing some of finance’s most famous names in a podcast series entitled “The end game”.

The latest episode featured one of the best strategists on the street, Gerard Minack of Downunder Daily fame. Listening in to this great discussion really got me thinking the unthinkable–what is the end game for this fiscal dysentery?

Readers will of course want to take a close look at the IMF’s controversial report that named and shamed not just the US for its perilous fiscal situation but also China. The table below shows US fiscal retrenchment in 2022 (deficit falls from 11.1% in 2021 to 4.1% in 2022) but then explodes up again to 8.8% in 2023 (see red box in table below).

Returning to national income account (NIA) identities, one thing all economists learn in Economics 101 is that the sum of domestic financial (im)balances (public and private) is equal to the capital account of the balance of payments, ie if the public and private sector combined run a deficit, this must be reflected in a capital (current) account surplus (deficit)....

....MUCH MORE

Financial repression and yield curve control. The alternatives are actual hyperinflation (greater than 50% per month) starting within ten years or a debt jubilee.Which, in the case of the sovereign means repudiation. Maybe the liquidators/receivers/cleanup crew could claim it was odious debt or something.

See:

• Kaminska Watch: QE (not QE) Returns; A Mandy Rice-Davies Sighting; Wind Turbines; Fentanyl, The Usual
• Société Générale's Albert Edwards Channels The Doors' Jim Morrison: This Is The End (of the ice age)

If interested see also April 15's "Since Yield Curve Control Is Coming Back We Should Probably Brush Up On How It Worked In The U.S." with the outro:

So YCC first as a way station on the road to full-on monetization.

In the meantime though, Partaaay!

"Spoilage alert: Red Sea crisis hits Europe’s fresh food trade "

Following on January 28's "Mandy Rice-Davies Moment Ahead: 'Biden Adviser Sees Limited Inflation Impact From Red Sea Attacks'".

From Politico.eu, January 26:

Houthi attacks on shipping are disrupting shipments of perishables, with exporters in southern Europe most affected.  

When Houthi missiles began raining down on container vessels in the Red Sea last year, European leaders feared a blowback on energy supplies. Three months on, it’s food that is under fire, with exporters and shippers warning of growing damage to the fruit and vegetable trade.

Shipping companies have halted operations through the strait of Bab el-Mandeb and re-routed around the Cape of Good Hope, adding delays of up to three weeks for transport to and from Europe. Besides a five-fold surge in container costs, that means that fresh produce is more likely to rot en route.

“There is significant risk,” Marco Forgione, director general at the Institute of Export & International Trade, told POLITICO, citing a range of product categories beyond fruits and vegetables. 

From meat and grains to tea and coffee, if the disruption continues it will “tear into the wider food economy,” he argued. Processing is another weak link, with disordered palm oil deliveries slowing down the preparation of higher-value foods. 

Exporters are particularly affected in southern European countries like Italy, Greece and Cyprus. Since their cargoes must now leave the Mediterranean to the west and go the long way round to the Middle East and Asia, many are struggling to get perishables to foreign markets on time, imperiling goods worth billions of euros.

“The lengthening of times can create problems in the preservation of the fresh produce with the risk of losing important slices of the market,” Coldiretti, Italy’s largest agricultural lobby, has warned.

In many cases, the “shelf life of fresh products [does] not allow for lengthening the journey by 15 to 20 days,” Cristian Maretti, president of Legacoop Agroalimentare, which represents Italian farming and food cooperatives, told Ansa....

....MUCH MORE

The article raises the important point that shipping to-and-from the eastern Mediterranean is terribly affected. So why aren't NATO members Greece and Turkey raising more of a stink?

Mandy Rice-Davies Moment Ahead: "Biden Adviser Sees Limited Inflation Impact From Red Sea Attacks"

Mandy Rice-Davies [was] a former model and showgirl known for her role in the Profumo affair.
When informed by the prosecuting attorney that Lord Astor disputed her version of events and denied having an affair she responded:

"Well, he would, wouldn't he?"

From Bloomberg via gCaptain, January 28:

President Joe Biden’s energy security adviser said the impact of Houthi rebel attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea is limited and pledged continued US action to curb the Iranian-backed group’s ability to disrupt markets.

Cost pressures have been more on logistics than on energy commodities, Amos Hochstein said on CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday. “The costs do go up,” Hochstein said. “But if you look at what they impact, the inflationary impacts are relatively muted.” 

Two months of missile, drone and hijacking attacks against civilian ships in the Red Sea have caused the biggest diversion of international trade in decades, pushing up global shipping costs and forcing hundreds of cargo ships to take alternative routes. Yet oil prices are lower than on Oct. 7 when an attack by Hamas militants on Israel triggered a war between the two sides....

....MORE

The introduction was from 2012's "Mandy Rice-Davies Sighting at FT Alphaville":

Mandy Rice-Davies is a former model and showgirl known for her role in the Profumo affair.
When informed by the prosecuting attorney that Lord Astor disputed her version of events and denied having an affair she responded:

"Well, he would, wouldn't he?"

From the FT Alphaville post:
Spooks on the payrolls
Posted by Joseph Cotterill on Jul 11 12:26.

...The report slipped out onto the DOL website this week. The Associated Press and Bloomberg have already torn it apart. But then, they would....

To the best of my knowledge, Mr. Cotterill is not a former model and showgirl.

We are keepers of the M.R-D flame:
Mandy Rice-Davies Alert: Christina Romer Says Maximum Tax Revenue at 84% Marginal Rate
She would, wouldn't she.*

*For British politicians of a certain age [often referred to as octo or nona-genarians -ed] the scandal surrounding Secretary of State for War John Profumo's affair with the alleged mistress of a Russian spy was highlighted by the testimony of Miss Rice-Davies, a friend of the alleged mistress, Christine Keeler.
From Wikipedia:

While giving evidence at the trial of Stephen Ward, charged with living off the immoral earnings of Keeler and Rice-Davies, the latter made a famous riposte. When the prosecuting counsel pointed out that Lord Astor denied an affair or having even met her, she replied, "Well, he would, wouldn't he?"

We've tried to keep the phrase alive, using it about once per year:

2007
Gore Says Markets are Key in Battle to Combat Climate Change

"Well, he would, wouldn't he?"
Mandy Rice Davies*

2007
ICE, Skating on Thin

TESTIMONY OF JEFFREY C. SPRECHER CHAIRMAN AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, INTERCONTINENTALEXCHANGE, INC.

Warning: Mandy Rice-Davies moment ahead.

"...we do not believe that a complete overhaul of the current regulatory structure is either warranted or advisable."

2008
UN Can Regulate Emissions Trading Without Conflict of Interest

All together now: A Mandy Rice-Davies Moment!*

2009
Major Problems at California's Public Pension Fund, CalPERS And: A Mandy Rice-Davies Moment!

One of these days I'll have to tell the story of how CalPERS got to this point. It is an ugly tale. For now we'll just post the slow motion train wreck.
On a positive note: Mandy Rice-Davies* moment ahead!  

One of my favorite usages:

Lord McIntosh of Haringey:  My Lords, I am proud of many things that this Government have done. I pause to anticipate the interjection—"He would say that, wouldn't he?"...

Lords Hansard text for 6 Feb 2002

Kaminska Watch: QE (not QE) Returns; A Mandy Rice-Davies Sighting; Wind Turbines; Fentanyl, The Usual

From Izabella's The Blind Spot:

Spot Markets Live Transcript, 27/10/23 (YCC US edition, Geopolitical risk premium and Fungi)

....Izabella Kaminska

But back to US GDP. Janet Yellen for one made an astounding comment vis a vis this yesterday. Bloomberg had the headline as

Yellen Says Yield Surge Is Due to Strong Economy, Not Deficits

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-26/yellen-says-increase-in-yields-reflects-higher-for-longer-rates

The actual quotes were:

“I don’t think much of that is connected” to the US budget deficit, Yellen said at an event in Bloomberg’s Washington office Thursday. “We’re seeing yields go up in most advanced countries.”

The increase in yields — which has taken benchmark Treasury rates to the highest levels since before the global financial crisis — is instead “largely a reflection of the resilience people are seeing in the economy,” she said.

“The economy is continuing to show tremendous robustness and that suggests that interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer,” she said.

So what do you reckon Julian? Stunning success show? Or Potemkin Village?....

***** 

....Izabella Kaminska

For the avoidance of any doubt. I’m going to repeat this very loudly and to the point.

Julian Rimmer 

type slowly because i cant read fast

Izabella Kaminska

What we are looking at here is the likely initiation of US YIELD CURVE CONTROL policy.

Got it?

Here’s the key passage....

....MUCH MUCH MORE, including the Holiday before The Day of The Dead, BwaHaHaHa 

(AKA Día de los Muertos); Also All Saints Day

"Crypto should be regulated as gambling, U.K. lawmakers say"

Hell, credit default swaps should be regulated as gambling if you don't own the credit. And sometimes even if you do and you are trying to force the issue.*

Mandy Rice-Davies moment dead ahead.

From Reuters via MSN, May 17:

Bitcoin, ether and other cryptocurrencies should be regulated as gambling given the significant risks they pose to consumers, a panel of UK lawmakers said in a report on Wednesday.

Britain, which wants to become a global hub for crypto and its underlying blockchain technology, is planning its first rules for cryptoassets, which currently only comply with anti-money laundering safeguards.

Bitcoin and ether account for two-thirds of all cryptoassets and are not backed by any currency or asset, leading to volatility in prices and the potential for all money invested in them to be wiped out, the report from parliament's treasury committee said.

Regulating retail trading and investment in unbacked cryptocurrencies could create a 'halo' effect that leads consumers to think the activity is safer than it is, or protected when it is not, it said.

"We therefore strongly recommend that the Government regulates retail trading and investment activity in unbacked cryptoassets as gambling rather than as a financial service, consistent with its stated principle of ‘same risk, same regulatory outcome’," the report said.

Industry body CryptoUK said it strongly disagreed with equating the crypto sector with gambling.

"We are both concerned and disappointed by these claims which are unhelpful, false, fundamentally flawed and unsubstantiated. The statement fails to reflect the true nature, purpose and potential of the crypto industry," CryptoUK said in a statement....

....MUCH MORE

Well they would, wouldn't they?

Mandy Rice-Davies was a former model and showgirl known for her role in the Profumo affair.
When informed by the prosecuting attorney that Lord Astor disputed her version of events and denied having an affair she responded:
"Well, he would, wouldn't he?" 

*....Following the Great Financial Crisis we had a series of posts on regulation, credit default swaps, bucket shops, Federal preemption of state law (supremacy, article vi, clause 2) state anti-gambling laws and various comments from folks learned and otherwise. A snip from a November 2011 post:

Are Derivatives Contracts Nothing More than Unenforceable Gambling Debts?
...Here's the U.S, Senate testimony of Eric Dinallo, then-Superintendent of the New York State Insurance Department on October 14, 2008 (8 page PDF).

...I have argued that these naked credit default swaps should not be called swaps because

there is no transfer or swap of risk. Instead, risk is created by the transaction. Indeed, you

have no risk on the outcome of the day’s third race at Belmont until you place a bet on

horse number five to win....

...“Bucket shops” arose in the late nineteenth century. Customers “bought” securities or

commodities on these unauthorized exchanges, but in reality the bucket shop was simply

booking the customer’s order without executing on an exchange. In fact, they were

simply throwing the trade ticket in the bucket, which is where the name comes from, and

tearing it up when an opposite trade came in. The bucket shop would agree to take the

other side of the customer’s “bet” on the performance of the security or commodity.

Bucket shops sometimes survived for a time by balancing their books, but were wiped

out by extreme bull or bear markets. When their books failed, the bucketeers simply

closed up shop and left town, leaving the “investors” holding worthless tickets....

Which had been preceded by July 2010's "Financial Reform: Enforce New York's 1908 Bucket Shop Law and trash the 2,319 Page Dodd-Frank Bill":

It is time to dispense with this congressional foolishness and enforce the 1908 Bucket Shop law.
Throw in some state anti-gambling statutes and you would have prevented the financial meltdown....

And so on.
In 2009 it was Charlie Munger who, in addition to, as he put it:

"I didn't set out in life to become the assistant leader of a cult."
-Mr. Munger at the 2007 Wesco annual meeting as recorded
by T2 Partners' Whitney Tilson

Is also a name partner at a pretty damn high-buck law firm:
An Interview with Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger (BRK. A)

Grundfest: You and your partner, Warren Buffett, have for years warned about the dangers of the modern derivatives markets, particularly credit derivatives, and about interest rate swaps, currency swaps, and equity swaps.

Munger: Interest rate swaps have enormous dangers given their size and the accounting that has been allowed. But credit default derivatives took that danger to new levels of excess—from something that was already gross and wrong. In the ’20s we had the “bucket shop.” The term bucket shop was a term of derision, because it described a gambling parlor. The bucket shop didn’t buy any securities. It just enabled people to make bets against the house and the house furnished little statements of how the bets came out. It was like the off-track betting system.

Grundfest: Until the house lost its money and suddenly disappeared. Or the house made its money and suddenly disappeared.

Munger: That is right. Derivatives trading, with no central clearing, brought back the bucket shop, because you could make bets without having any interest in the basic security, and people did make such bets in the billions and billions of dollars. Some of the most admired people in finance — including Alan Greenspan — argued that derivatives trading, substituting for the old bucket shop, was a great contribution to modern economic civilization. There’s another word for this: bonkers. It is not a credit to academic economics that Greenspan’s view was so common.

There is much more.

In 2018 we had:  "Pope says credit default swaps are unethical"

But to date the Pope has not weighed in on cryptocurrencies.

In his 2015 Encyclical, Laudato Si  Francis gave technology in general the Papal thumbs up.

In 2017 the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences held a symposium on human slavery in the 21st century and one of the speakers, Joseph Mari from the Bank of Montreal spoke on Bitcoin's role in the trade.
But no wider comment on the tech.
Personally, I think they are planning to roll out Vaticoin any day now.

—last seen in February 2020's "The Pope, The Reporter, The Regulator and Supremecy (and Bitcoin)"

"White House says blog post on Nord Stream explosion 'utterly false'"

Huh. A Mandy Rice-Davies moment dead ahead.*

From Reuters via MSN, February 8:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The White House on Wednesday dismissed a blog post by a U.S. investigative journalist alleging the United States was behind explosions of the Nord Stream gas pipelines as "utterly false and complete fiction."

Reuters has not corroborated the report, published by U.S. investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, which said an attack was carried out last September at the direction of President Joe Biden.

"This is utterly false and complete fiction," said Adrienne Watson, a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council. Spokespeople for the CIA and State Department said the same....

....MUCH MORE

"blog post" is a nice touch.

 

See, the U.S. apparatchiks have to say that because admitting they did it would be admitting an act of war, in the same way that Russia cutting off the Keystone XL pipeline would be an act of war. Except the Biden Administration did it. Saaaay....

*Mandy Rice-Davies is [was, RIP] a former model and showgirl known for her role in the Profumo affair.
When informed by the prosecuting attorney that Lord Astor disputed her version of events and denied having an affair she responded:
"Well, he would, wouldn't he?" 

For British politicians of a certain age [often referred to as octo or nona-genarians -ed] the scandal surrounding Secretary of State for War John Profumo's affair with the alleged mistress of a Russian spy was highlighted by the testimony of Miss Rice-Davies, a friend of the alleged mistress, Christine Keeler.
From Wikipedia:

While giving evidence at the trial of Stephen Ward, charged with living off the immoral earnings of Keeler and Rice-Davies, the latter made a famous riposte. When the prosecuting counsel pointed out that Lord Astor denied an affair or having even met her, she replied, "Well, he would, wouldn't he?"

—from our 2012 post "Mandy Rice-Davies Sighting at FT Alphaville"  which among other occurances included:

One of my favorite usages:

Lord McIntosh of Haringey:  My Lords, I am proud of many things that this Government have done. I pause to anticipate the interjection—"He would say that, wouldn't he?"...

Lords Hansard text for 6 Feb 2002

Earlier:
Updated—Seymour Hersh Is Back With A Big Story: "How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline"

UNESCO Wants You To Know: Events Are NOT Secretly Manipulated Behind The Scenes By Powerful Forces With Negative Intent

Mandy Rice-Davies anyone?

From the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization:

(click to enlarge)

That's from the new European Commission/UNESCO #ThinkBeforeSharing campaign.

There are ten infographics in ten languages along with ten stamps. Collect the whole set!

Mandy Rice-Davies was a former model and showgirl known for her role in the Profumo affair.
When informed by the prosecuting attorney that Lord Astor disputed her version of events and denied having an affair she responded:

"Well, he would, wouldn't he?"

We are keepers of the M.R-D flame.

For British politicians of a certain age [often referred to as octo or nona-genarians -ed] the scandal surrounding Secretary of State for War John Profumo's affair with the alleged mistress of a Russian spy was highlighted by the testimony of Miss Rice-Davies, a friend of the alleged mistress, Christine Keeler.

From Wikipedia:

While giving evidence at the trial of Stephen Ward, charged with living off the immoral earnings of Keeler and Rice-Davies, the latter made a famous riposte. When the prosecuting counsel pointed out that Lord Astor denied an affair or having even met her, she replied, "Well, he would, wouldn't he?"

We've tried to keep the phrase alive, using it about once per year. One of my favorite usages:

Lord McIntosh of Haringey:  My Lords, I am proud of many things that this Government have done. I pause to anticipate the interjection—"He would say that, wouldn't he?"...

Lords Hansard text for 6 Feb 2002

NYU School Of Law: "The World Bank and co. may be paving a ‘Digital Road to Hell’ with support for dangerous digital ID"

From the press release, June 17:

Global actors, led by the World Bank, are energetically promoting biometric and other digital ID systems that are increasingly linked to large-scale human rights violations, especially in the Global South. A report by researchers at New York University warns that these systems, promoted in the name of development and inclusion, might be achieving neither. Rather than the equitable digital future envisioned by the World Bank and its Identification for Development (ID4D) Initiative, the report argues that “despite undoubted good intentions on the part of some, [these systems] may well be paving a digital road to hell.”

The report, at over 100 pages, is intended to be a “carefully researched primer as well as a call to action to all of those with an interest in safeguarding human rights to set their gaze more firmly on the multidimensional dangers associated with digital ID systems.” Governments around the world have been investing heavily in digital identification systems, often with biometric components (digital ID). The rapid proliferation of such systems is driven by a new development consensus, packaged and promoted by key global actors like the World Bank, but also by governments, foundations, vendors and consulting firms. This new ‘manufactured consensus’ holds that digital ID can contribute to inclusive and sustainable development—and is even a prerequisite for the realization of human rights.

Drawing inspiration from the Aadhaar system in India, the dangerous digital ID model that is being promoted prioritizes what the primer refers to as an ‘economic identity’.  The goal of such systems is primarily to establish ‘uniqueness’ of individuals, commonly with the help of biometric technologies. The ultimate objective of such digital ID systems is to facilitate economic transactions and private sector service delivery while also bringing new, poorer, individuals into formal economies and ‘unlocking’ their behavioral data. As the Executive Chairman of the influential ID4Africa, a platform where African governments and major companies in the digital ID market meet, put it at the start of its 2022 Annual Meeting earlier this week, digital ID is no longer about identity alone but “enables and interacts with authentication platforms, payments systems, digital signatures, data sharing, KYC systems, consent management and sectoral delivery platforms.”

Unlike ‘traditional systems’ of civil registration, such as birth registration, this new model of economic identity commonly sidesteps difficult questions about the legal status of those it registers and the rights associated with that status. The promises of inclusion and flourishing digital economies might appear attractive on paper, but digital ID systems have consistently failed to deliver on these promises in real world situations, especially for the most marginalized. In fact, evidence is emerging from many countries, most notably the mega digital ID project Aadhaar in India, of the severe and large-scale human rights violations linked to this model. These systems may in fact exacerbate pre-existing forms of exclusion and discrimination in public and private services. The use of new technologies may furthermore lead to novel forms of harm, including biometric exclusion, discrimination, and the many harms associated with “surveillance capitalism.”

Meanwhile, the benefits of digital ID remain ill-defined and poorly documented. From what evidence does exist, it seems that those who stand to benefit most may not be those “left behind”, but instead a small group of companies and governments. After all, where digital ID systems have tended to excel is in generating lucrative contracts for biometrics companies and enhancing the surveillance and migration-control capabilities of governments....

....MORE

Report: "Paving a Digital Road to Hell?" (103 page PDF)

Related:
February 2019
"Kenya Government mandates DNA-linked national ID, without data protection law"
April 2022
"Seventy-Three Million People Lose Mobile Phone Access in Nigeria For Not Having Digital ID"
What were once conspiracy theories are now headlines....

April 2019
UPDATED—Facebook is Making In-Person Visits To Verify ID's (FB)
April 2019
Update: "Facebook denies it conducted physical verification of users in India for posting political content" (FB)
Most of the commenters glommed onto the privacy issues raised when the wire service reported this event but a couple of the more astute observers went deeper, into the question of proving you are you.

May 2020
Bill Gates Would Like To Export India's Aadhaar Biometric Identity System To the Rest of The World
This is a couple years old (May 3, 2018) but I wanted it on the blog for future reference....

September 2020
Tony Blair: "It is common sense to move toward digital IDs"
It's just common sense.
I feel a Mandy Rice-Davies moment coming on*

September 2021
WHO: "Digital documentation of COVID-19 certificates: vaccination status"
Well it's about time.
Now, if we can put them all into a database. Maybe a chain.
Dare I hope: An immutable chain.
And maybe gamify them: "Hey kids, collect all 7 billion"

June 2021
"European Union Advances Plans For Post-Pandemic Digital Wallet"
What a honeypot for the cybercriminals.

December 2021
Meanwhile In Sweden: "Facing COVID passport mandate, more Swedes get microchip implants"

July 2022
Okay, Here's The Plan (literally): The World Economic Forum's "Future Focus, 2025"

And many, many more. If interested use the 'search blog' box upper left

"Google, Facebook tell SCOTUS it should be harder for you to sue them" (GOOG; FB; EVIL)

Mandy Rice-Davies is in need of a bit of a lie-down after our last few visits so in her stead is a British Peer:

Lord McIntosh of Haringey:  My Lords, I am proud of many things that this Government have done. I pause to anticipate the interjection—"He would say that, wouldn't he?"...

Lords Hansard text for 6 Feb 2002

From Ars Technica:

Suing technology firms when they mess up is already hard, especially when it's over privacy violations. Now, Facebook, Google, and the trade groups representing all the big tech firms are asking the Supreme Court to make it even harder for class actions to pursue cases against them.

Facebook, Google, and all the others submitted a filing (PDF) to the Supreme Court this week essentially arguing that if you cannot prove the specific extent to which their screwup injured you, you should not have any grounds to be part of a lawsuit against them.

Class-action suits start with a lead plaintiff—basically a representative of the group who stands in for hundreds or thousands of other individuals in a similar, or theoretically similar—but not necessarily identical—situation. This is particularly key in cases relating to privacy and data, where a small handful of plaintiffs for whom something goes badly wrong may be the reason that hundreds, thousands, or even millions of users then discover that their data is being similarly mishandled.

The tech firms, however, want the court to say that everyone in the class has to be able to prove a similar injury in order to participate—a limitation that would severely curtail lawsuits such as the biometric privacy case Facebook just settled in Illinois from going forward....

....MUCH MORE

"Luxembourg rejects tax haven label"

A Mandy Rice-Davies moment!*

Earlier today the FT's Izabella Kaminska tipped us to the Le Monde story in FT Alphaville's Further Reading post:

"OpenLux : the secrets of Luxembourg, a tax haven at the heart of Europe"

nquête 

Multinationals, billionaires, artists, sportsmen, criminals : an investigation by Le Monde reveals for the first time exhaustively what the Grand Duchy’s financial centre conceals, thanks to its tax advantages.

...MUCH MORE

And from the AP via the Financial Crime and Corruption Education site:

Luxembourg on Monday denied claims made in international media publications that the nation is a massive tax haven for the world’s rich and famous despite European Union legislation to clamp down on it.

A group of media outlets including France’s Le Monde allege that the Grand Duchy has scores of ghost companies without staff or offices with only the aim in mind to hide or protect funds and wealth from tax collectors or harbor suspect funds. The outlets cite financial data they collated based on publicly available registers of companies.

The Luxembourg government said in a statement Monday it “rejects the claims made in these articles as well as the entirely unjustified portrayal of the country and its economy.”...

....MORE

*Mandy Rice-Davies is was a former model and showgirl known for her role in the Profumo affair.
When informed by the prosecuting attorney that Lord Astor disputed her version of events and denied having an affair she responded:
"Well, he would, wouldn't he?" 

The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project also had their take on the story:

Shedding Light on Big Secrets in Tiny Luxembourg 

But then they are also running with:

Queen Elizabeth II Accused of Lobbying U.K. Government 

Previously on the wonder that is Luxembourg:
What's the Scam? Why Did Deloitte Set Up Their Art & Finance Practice In Luxembourg?

Luxembourg's ^#@*&! Space Agency and Fund
Luxembourg’s Asteroid Mining Plan
Luxembourg Invests €25 million in Asteroid Mining
Luxembourg’s Bid to Become the Silicon Valley of Space Mining
Luxembourg's New Space Mining Law Is Basically "Finders, Keepers" 
Morgan Stanley—"Space: Investing In the Final Frontier"

Swiss space agency boss is kidnapped by hitmen who beat him senseless then tried to burn him alive
Swiss Space Systems founder accused of ‘staging’ own attack
Swiss Space Systems: Just "Fugget About It!"
Swiss Space Systems Declares Bankruptcy-Parabolic Story Arc

Goldman Sachs on Asteroid Mining: As If Luxembourg Wasn't Insufferable Already

Luxembourg, with their #3 in the world GDP per capita (PPP) and their Jean-Claude Juncker and...
Insufferable. It's like Bono and Elevation Partners. Besides being Bono, they ran $90 mil. to $1.5 billion in Facebook.
Billion with a 'B'. As in Bono....

[re the Goldman bit]
...It's a 24 minute podcast, something one could listen to while in transit but did anyone bother to tell me about it?
No. That's why we're getting to it a year late, despite my avowed interest in becoming the world's first trillionaire.
And ignoring that Alchemist's Fallacy thing and all.

Here's ZeroHdge from April 19th (yes, they're a year late as well but how does that help moi?): 
The World's First Trillionaire Will Be A Space Miner 

Huh, I must have been crabby that day.
Anyhoo, onwards:

Dammit! Luxembourg Is Not A Microstate!
From Brilliant Maps:

The map above shows how big Luxembourg is compared to Singapore, Andorra, Malta, Liechtenstein, San Marino, Monaco, and the Vatican.

Luxembourg is 2,586.4 km2 (998.6 sq mi) with a population of 576,249, making it one of the world’s smallest states; 168th by size or 164th by population.

However, it’s still bigger than Singapore, Andorra, Malta, Liechtenstein, San Marino, Monaco, and the Vatican combined!

Here’s how big they are respectively:...MORE

Crabby that day as well.

"Oligarchs and Orchestras: Inside Luxembourg’s Secretive Low-Tax ‘Fortress of Art’ Warehouse" 

Uh Oh: "Bail-In Blues: Luxembourg Warns of Investor Flight from Europe"
Luxembourg and Switzerland are two of the "Banking-assets-an-order-of-magnitude-bigger-than-GDP" powerhouses....

Short The Swiss (and Luxembourg)
Maybe Liechtenstein too. Never much cared for Doha either. And then there's...
errrmmm, excuse me.... 

For some reason posting on Luxembourg seems to bring out the worst in me.  

"The disruption con: why big tech’s favourite buzzword is nonsense"

From The Gueardian:

How one magic word became a way of justifying Silicon Valley’s unconstrained power 

There are certain phrases that are central to the sway the tech industry holds over our collective imagination: they do not simply reflect our experience, they frame how we experience it in the first place. They sweep aside certain parts of the status quo, and leave other parts mysteriously untouched. They implicitly cast you as a stick-in-the-mud if you ask how much revolution someone is capable of when that person represents billions in venture capital investment. Among the most influential of these phrases is undoubtedly “disruption”.

The concept of disruption is a way for companies, the press or simply individuals to think about questions of continuity and discontinuity – what lasts and what doesn’t, what is genuinely new and what is just the next version of something older. There is a lot at stake in how we think about these issues. Are the changes the tech industry brings about, or claims to bring about, fundamental transformations of how capitalism functions, or are they an extension of how it has always functioned? The answers to such questions will determine what regulatory oversight we believe is necessary or desirable, what role we think the government or unions should play in a new industry such as tech, and even how the industry and its titans ought to be discussed.

When we speak of disruption, we are usually thinking about the perils of continuity; we express the sense that continuity works fine until it doesn’t. To some extent, this sense that things staying the same for too long is dangerous and makes us risk falling behind, is characteristic of modernity – not in the sense of a specific time period so much as the condition of being modern, living in a modern age. As the poet Charles Baudelaire wrote in the 19th century, when the world around him was modernising at a breakneck pace: “The form of a city / changes faster, alas, than a mortal’s heart.” Keep living the way you’re living, and soon enough you’ll find yourself living in the past.

More specifically, though, disruption resonates with our experience of capitalism. Think of all the companies and products that you remember treating as seemingly permanent, inextricable fixtures of your everyday life, that nevertheless slid right out and disappeared with time. Recall, if you’re of the right age, the act of respooling a cassette tape with your pinkie finger, or the phrase “Be kind, please rewind”. Or, for a slightly younger generation, the whistles of a dial-up modem or the mastication of a floppy disk drive. Disruption tells a story that explains how things that seem as if they will last forever nevertheless come to be short-lived.

Neither those who argue for continuity nor those who are in favour of discontinuity are disinterested parties – everyone has a stake in these things. I have to include myself in this. I confess to being very wary of claims of disruption, but then again, as a professor of literature, I’m in a profession that pretty much depends on the idea that the past matters a lot and that messing with it in any meaningful sense entails spending a lot of time studying it. As Mandy Rice-Davies put it when she was told that the politician Lord Astor denied having an affair with her: “He would say that, wouldn’t he?” And I would argue that stewardship of the past is more important than riding roughshod over it, wouldn’t I?

Nonetheless, I think at least some of the rhetoric of disruption depends on actively misunderstanding and misrepresenting the past. We can call this the infomercial effect. You don’t see quite so many of them today, but they were once ubiquitous, and they would follow the same template: “Don’t you hate it when,” they would ask, and name an extremely minor problem with some mundane task you honestly couldn’t say you had ever encountered. Then they’d offer their revolutionary solution to the problem they had invented about 30 seconds prior. The infomercial deliberately misinterpreted whatever it was seeking to disrupt. One of the greatest works of collective satire of the internet age are the 6,069 and counting Amazon reviews for the Hutzler 571 banana slicer, which mock exactly the mania for buzzy solutions in search of a problem – “No more paying for those expensively sliced fruits- i can just stay at home,” joked one user.

The reason infomercials use this template is that it taps into a pretty pervasive sense of boredom. We get excited when things get shaken up, for the big and powerful to get taken down a peg. There is a joy in seeing “the system” shaken up, old hierarchies up-ended, Goliaths falling to Davids. Such narratives play to our impatience with structures and situations that seem to coast on habit and inertia, and to the press’s excitement about underdogs, rebels, outsiders. If you look back at coverage of Theranos, until the fateful article by John Carreyrou in the Wall Street Journal that brought the company down, few journalists really bothered to ask whether or not Theranos could do what it claimed to be able to do – they asked what would happen if it could. Disruption is high drama. The claim that “things work the way they work because there’s a certain logic to them” is not.

---

The idea of disruption has a particularly strange backstory. Probably its oldest ancestors are Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, who wrote in the Communist Manifesto that the modern capitalist world is characterised by “constant revolutionising of production, uninterrupted disturbance of all social conditions”, so that, as they put it, “all that is solid melts into air”. Whereas the premodern world was defined by a few stable certainties, by centuries-old tradition, and governed by ancient habits of thought, in modernity all fixed relations “are swept away, all new-formed ones become antiquated before they can ossify”. You can sense their giddiness, even though the situation they describe is disorienting and ultimately nightmarish. And yet they are giddy, because they feel that this accelerating cycle of constant destruction and replacement ultimately destroys itself.

This idea made its way from the Communist Manifesto into business jargon by way of the economist Joseph Schumpeter, who, in a 1942 book, coined the phrase “creative destruction”. Although hardly a communist himself, Schumpeter derived the term from Marx and intended it to be descriptive rather than affirmative. Born in Austria in 1883, Schumpeter was steeped in both Marxian economics and in the work of classical liberal economists such as Ludwig von Mises. He became one of the great analysts of the business cycle, but also of its social ramifications. In 1932, he became a professor at Harvard. Schumpeter thought that capitalism would almost gradually lead to some kind of state socialism, a fact that he didn’t exactly welcome but thought inevitable....

....MUCH MORE

Tony Blair: "It is common sense to move toward digital IDs"

It's just common sense.
I feel a Mandy Rice-Davies moment coming on*

From the BBC:

Former Prime Minister Tony Blair has said it is "common sense to move in the direction of digital IDs" as part of efforts to fight coronavirus.

Mr Blair said there should be a record kept by the government of those vaccinated against the virus.
The government recently set out plans to change laws to enable the use of digital identity across the UK.

As prime minister, Mr Blair launched a compulsory ID card scheme, but it was scrapped by the coalition government.

Speaking to the BBC's Newscast podcast, he said that once a coronavirus vaccine is in use "you're going to want a record of the fact you've been vaccinated".
"You'll want a record kept by the government of who's been vaccinated - this will be essential, again, to restoring confidence," he added.

The former PM argued that improvements in technology meant privacy issues "can be dealt with".
"You don't need a large amount of information," he said adding: "People give a lot more information to their supermarkets than they do to the government."....

...MORE

*Mandy Rice-Davies [was] a model and showgirl known for her role in the Profumo affair.
When informed by the prosecuting attorney that Lord Astor disputed her version of events and denied having an affair she responded:

"Well, he would, wouldn't he?"

To the best of my knowledge Mr. Blair was neither a model or showgirl.
Rather, the former PM is one of the smoothest of the transnationalists.

... One of my favorite usages:

Lord McIntosh of Haringey: My Lords, I am proud of many things that this Government have done. I pause to anticipate the interjection—"He would say that, wouldn't he?"...

—Lords Hansard text for 6 Feb 2002

Meanwhile In Nigeria, President Buhari Is Still Alive and Talking Electricity Deregulation

If you recall, a couple years ago we saw this:

Meanwhile in Nigeria: President Buhari Denies Dying and Being Replaced By a Lookalike 
Mandy Rice-Davies moment ahead....


And here he is yesterday, via All-Africa:
Nigeria: President Buhari Speaks On New Prices of Petrol, Electricity

We have another Mandy Rice-Davies moment coming up this evening with former British PM, Tony Blair.

Honey Traps: Sex, lies, and spycraft.

We happened to catch up with the MI5 warning in 2010, more after the jump.

From Lapham's Quarterly:

According to an MI5 memo distributed in 2008 to hundreds of British organizations deemed potential targets for Chinese spies, intelligence services have “been known to exploit vulnerabilities such as sexual relationships…to pressurize individuals to cooperate with them.”

• As a young man, Julius Caesar is named ambassador to the court of Nicomedes IV of Bithynia, where he stays much longer than necessary. Though he denies rumors of a sexual relationship with the king, Caesar is dubbed “Queen of Bithynia” by his peers. Nicomedes later bequeaths his entire kingdom to Rome in his will.
  
• When she discovers that the strength of Samson, an Israelite judge, will disappear if his long hair is cut off, Delilah reports his secret to the Philistines, who hire her to lop it off. Thus weakened, Samson is turned over to the Philistines, who gouge out his eyes and force him to grind grain.
  
• Sent to Paris by her cousin Camillo Cavour to further the cause of Italian unification by any means possible, Virginia Oldoini becomes mistress to Napoleon III in 1856. Although the relationship is short-lived, the emperor commits French troops to help Vittorio Emanuele II establish the Kingdom of Italy.
  
• British minister for war John Profumo resigns from Harold Macmillan’s government in 1963 after confessing to an affair with teenage model Chris­tine Keeler, who is discovered to have been simultaneously involved with a Soviet spy working as a naval attaché.
  

....MORE

It was never shown that Ms Keeler set a trap, just that Profumo was at risk of same.
And thanks to Christine's pal Mandy Rice-Davies we have been able to repeat one of the most famous (and honest) comments in British politics a few dozen times.

And from March 2010:

"MI5 is worried about sex...." (GS)
From Foreign Policy: 
The History of the Honey Trap

Five lessons for would-be James Bonds and Bond girls -- and the men and women who would resist them.
MI5 is worried about sex. In a 14-page document distributed last year to hundreds of British banks, businesses, and financial institutions, titled "The Threat from Chinese Espionage," the famed British security service described a wide-ranging Chinese effort to blackmail Western businesspeople over sexual relationships. The document, as the London Times reported in January, explicitly warns that Chinese intelligence services are trying to cultivate "long-term relationships" and have been known to "exploit vulnerabilities such as sexual relationships ... to pressurise individuals to co-operate with them."

This latest report on Chinese corporate espionage tactics is only the most recent installment in a long and sordid history of spies and sex. For millennia, spymasters of all sorts have trained their spies to use the amorous arts to obtain secret information.

The trade name for this type of spying is the "honey trap." And it turns out that both men and women are equally adept at setting one -- and equally vulnerable to tumbling in. Spies use sex, intelligence, and the thrill of a secret life as bait. Cleverness, training, character, and patriotism are often no defense against a well-set honey trap. And as in normal life, no planning can take into account that a romance begun in deceit might actually turn into a genuine, passionate affair. In fact, when an East German honey trap was exposed in 1997, one of the women involved refused to believe she had been deceived, even when presented with the evidence. "No, that's not true," she insisted. "He really loved me."

Those who aim to perfect the art of the honey trap in the future, as well as those who seek to insulate themselves, would do well to learn from honey trap history. Of course, there are far too many stories -- too many dramas, too many rumpled bedsheets, rattled spouses, purloined letters, and ruined lives -- to do that history justice here. Yet one could begin with five famous stories and the lessons they offer for honey-trappers, and honey-trappees, everywhere.

1. Don't Follow That Girl
In 1986, Mordechai Vanunu, an Israeli technician who had worked in Israel's Dimona nuclear facility, went to the British newspapers with his claim that Israel had developed atomic bombs. His statement was starkly at odds with Israel's official policy of nuclear ambiguity -- and he had photos to prove it.
The period of negotiation among the newspapers was tense, and at one point the London Sunday Times was keeping Vanunu hidden in a secret location in suburban London while it attempted to verify his story. But Vanunu got restless. He announced to his minders at the paper that he had met a young woman while visiting tourist attractions in London and that they were planning a romantic weekend in Rome.

The newspaper felt it had no right to prevent Vanunu from leaving. It was a huge mistake:....

....MUCH MORE