From Marc Chandler at Bannockburn Global Forex:
The US dollar continues to trade with a firmer bias. We are still struck by the over-bought technical momentum indicators, arguably encouraged by the aggressive pricing of the trajectory of Fed policy. In the Fed funds futures, the odds of an October hike six days ahead of the midterm election. In recent years, there is some precedent for a move six days before a national election (e.g., 2008, 2018, and 2022). The market is pricing in almost 100 bp of hikes over the next 12 months. Sentiment seems vulnerable to any disappointment with the economic data in the coming days.
Throughout the North American session today, no fewer than six Fed officials speak today. Most has [sic] spoken recently and it seems clear, as the dot plot indicated, many are prepared to hike rates again this year. The question is when. However, also recall that the dot plot less than two weeks old showed the median projection was for no hikes next year. That said, it is possible the under new management, the Summary of Economic Projections are dropped next year....
....MUCH MORE
If only there was some way to harness the energy in the Fedspeak wind.
