From Marc to Market:
After consolidating softer yesterday, the US dollar has come back bid today. It often does better when US rates are rising unlike many of the other major currencies. However, the dollar’s strength does not reflect is successes on the various fronts the Trump administration has made a stance.
The war in the Middle East has escalated and a few ships have been attacked today in the Strait of Hormuz. October WTI is traded at its highest level since May earlier today. The long-end US yields are at new multiyear highs despite the Treasury’s plan to boost buybacks starting this week. The effort to support the yen are being rebuffed as the dollar trades above JPY160, despite high conviction that the Bank of Japan raises rates late this month. While some reports claimed Treasury Secretary Bessent told Japan’s Ministry of Finance and the central bank that its next move should be to raise rates, Japanese officials seemed to play it down, and the Minister of Finance herself cited the BOJ Act, protecting its independence. The swaps market shows high confidence in a BOJ rate hike. It is higher than the US, which has stronger growth and higher inflation....
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