It has been a rough few years for the Arctic Ice.
May 2024 - Arctic: Well, The Ice Has Begun Retreating Fom Its Winter Maximum....
....And it was not a good year.
As long-time readers know we focus on sea ice thickness and volume rather than extent. This is because of the way ice melts. Just as the ice in your glass will last longer in block form than as thin shavings, the Arctic ice better resists melting the thicker it is.
We might have a winter where the polar vortex stays nice and tight around the Arctic Circle, keeping the colder air over one (large) spot and have less, sometimes far less ice extent than in winters where the circumpolar winds break down allowing the cold air to head south, forming a thin skin of ice over a greater area.
The problem is, that thin skin begins to melt as soon as the sun returns to the Northland. The thicker ice melts slower and has a better chance of becoming second-year or multi-year ice which is the stuff that has the best chance of resisting the warm air of summer....
March 2025 - Arctic Sea Ice Sets Lowest Winter Maximum Extent In The 47-Year Satellite Record
October 2025 - Good News/Bad News On The Arctic Ice Cap
First, the bad news. The ice is in terrible shape.
As always, our interest, because of the way ice melts, is in thickness rather than extent....
October 2025 - "Chinese Freighter Halves EU Delivery Time on Maiden Arctic Voyage to UK"
Because of the way ice freezes (and melts) we would expect the graph to show faster growth in extent than in the last few years. Unfortunately that is because more water is exposed and come next spring it won't be very thick compared to the multi-year ice you really want to see.
May 2026 - "NASA and JAXA data show another record-low Arctic winter sea-ice season"
***
And from the Danish Meteorological Institute, retrieved Wednesday AM Copenhagen time:
The volume of ice up north passed that of the 2025 and 2024 seasons in July 2026. We were not sure if the trend would continue but now that the ice is approaching the seasonal low point it looks as though the bottom is in.
