Friday, July 3, 2026

"Inside Taiwan's nightmare scenario: Chinese blockade, earthquake, sabotage and invasion"

 From Reuters, July 2:

  • Taiwan tests 'resilience' drills to respond to a Chinese attack
  • Exercise this week simulated response to invasion and earthquake
  • Taiwan drawing lessons from Ukraine
  • China views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory 
It was a nightmare scenario for Taiwan: a Chinese blockade, a strong earthquake seized on by Beijing to sow chaos, hijacked television broadcasts, sabotaged infrastructure, a run on banks, civil unrest — and then a full-scale ​invasion.
 
That was the cascading crisis presented to more than 370 government and military officials during an exercise in central Taiwan this week, part of President Lai Ching-te's push to harden the island's ‌war preparedness as Chinese military pressure on the democratically governed island intensifies.
 
Reuters was granted rare exclusive access to the closed-door drill, the first such test of whether officials in Nantou, working with central government and military agencies, could keep the mountainous county functioning under attack.
 
Taiwan has been ramping up its so-called "resilience" exercises to prepare civilians and officials for crises ranging from natural disasters to war, moving beyond past drills often criticised as scripted, performative and of limited value.
 
"Our adversary is right on our doorstep, just across the Taiwan Strait. That is very close," Chi ​Lien-cheng, the minister without portfolio overseeing the two-day drill, told Reuters.
"If you don't defend your own country, who else will defend you? I think people are beginning to understand that," he said, acknowledging there were still ​many shortcomings and that resources could fall short in a real disaster.
 
"But that's all right. We are here to see how they carry out the exercise — whether they have ⁠the will to absorb these concepts and put them into practice."
China has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control. Taiwan's government says only the island's people can decide their future.
 
On Thursday, as the drill ​was ending, Taiwan reported that China had carried out another "joint combat readiness patrol" around the island with warships and at least 22 military aircraft, including nuclear-capable H-6 bombers.
 
China's Taiwan Affairs Office said Lai was "deliberately escalating" tensions.
"This will only push Taiwan into ​the dangerous situation of war and conflict. He is, through and through, a destroyer of cross-strait peace, a creator of crises in the Taiwan Strait, and an instigator of war," spokesperson Zhu Fenglian said on Thursday.

'COSTLY WAR' MAY NOT SUCCEED
The drill began with a seven-hour tabletop exercise before moving the next day to field drills that included shooting down a Chinese drone threatening a power plant and setting up food ration stations.
 
The magnitude 6.8 earthquake scenario, in which 12 people were killed, added another layer of stress, forcing officials to juggle disaster ​relief, disrupted infrastructure, rising public unrest and wartime contingency planning....
....MUCH MORE