Saturday, July 18, 2026

AI/semiconductors/software: "Forrester Global Sovereignty Forecast: Despite Rising Geopolitical Tensions, Technology Sovereignty Will Advance Slowly Through 2030"

Yesterday I found myself wondering how the Central African Republic was ever going to compete. Here Forrester raises the same question re: Europe. 

From Forrester Research, July 16: 

China and the US will remain leaders in technology sovereignty, leaving most European and midsize countries dependent on external alliances to close capability gaps 

According to Forrester’s (Nasdaq: FORR) Global Sovereignty Forecast, 2025 To 2030, global technology sovereignty — a country’s ability to develop, operate, and secure critical technologies independently of foreign governments’ influence — will evolve slowly over the next five years. The average tech sovereignty score across all 14 countries assessed (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, the UK, and the US) is expected to rise only minimally, from 39% in 2025 to 40% in 2030. China and the US lead the pack, recording the highest overall tech sovereignty scores at 82% and 79%, respectively. Both countries are expected to maintain their lead over the next five years, underscoring that tech sovereignty will remain concentrated among a small number of geopolitical and economic powers. To close capability gaps and reduce critical technology dependencies, other countries will need to rely on strategic partnerships and alliances. 

Released for the first time, Forrester’s Global Sovereignty Forecast includes a tech sovereignty index, which measures a country’s ability to develop, operate, and secure critical technologies independently to reduce exposure to geopolitical risks. The index assesses each country across nine dimensions of technology sovereignty: government AI investment, cloud sovereignty, technology workforce availability, AI model development, data center capacity relative to technology spending, data center autonomy, semiconductor production, software creation, and rare earths processing. 

Among all technology dimensions, semiconductor manufacturing shows the strongest projected improvement, led by the US and South Korea, whose chip production scores are expected to increase from 45% in 2025 to 79% in 2030, followed by Japan (36% to 53%), China (40% to 51%), and India (0% to 13%). Even with these improvements, semiconductors and software will remain among the most significant sovereignty challenges due to concentrated chip supply chains and a handful of dominant software providers....

....MUCH MORE 

Maybe after the July 27 full release of Moonshot AI's flagship model, everyone in the C.A.R. will just download Kimi K3.